18 replies to this topic

[johngeorge]

LINK

[Wavetimer]

LINK

when hell frezzeeeeee over

[SilentOne]

hi jg, I thought I would add that Adam's analysis is OK if you assume another 22 months peak to peak from the Nov. 2009 high. But you also have to look at another longer cycle that runs about 60 +/-1 months for gold (last peak May 2006). That cycle is now in the 58th month. So I don't think this can go to August. We are more likely to see a major correction by May this year, possibly in the coming weeks for both silver and gold. I won't speculate on targets, but from here a peak in gold and silver can come at anytime. It will be very difficult to predict price action. But once it comes, it will be equivalent to the May 2006 peak IMO. You won't want to be long the metals. This is not a good place for investing in the metals. GLGT. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 08 March 2011 - 01:30 PM.

[johngeorge]

hi jg,

I thought I would add that Adam's analysis is OK if you assume another 22 months peak to peak from the Nov. 2009 high. But you also have to look at another longer cycle that runs about 60 +/-1 months for gold (last peak May 2006). That cycle is now in the 58th month. So I don't think this can go to August. We are more likely to see a major correction by May this year, possibly in the coming weeks for both silver and gold. I won't speculate on targets, but from here a peak in gold and silver can come at anytime. It will be very difficult to predict price action. But once it comes, it will be equivalent to the May 2006 peak IMO. You won't want to be long the metals.

This is not a good place for investing in the metals.

GLGT.

cheers,

john

john

Thanks for your always thoughtful and insightful analysis. You have an outstanding record on this board. I know because I have followed your posts for years.

I too have a very edgy feeling about precious metals in here. IMO this run of the bulls is getting long in the tooth and late in the season. Technicals are deteriorating in a number of indexes I follow along with some individual stocks. However, I like to believe there is another run higher in the next few days or next week. After all, this is still a bull market and surprises are ususally on the upside. So will see what happens. I am hunkered down, but, looking for one more ST trade. Then unloading my trading stocks.

Best to you.

[dharma]

hi jg,

I thought I would add that Adam's analysis is OK if you assume another 22 months peak to peak from the Nov. 2009 high. But you also have to look at another longer cycle that runs about 60 +/-1 months for gold (last peak May 2006). That cycle is now in the 58th month. So I don't think this can go to August. We are more likely to see a major correction by May this year, possibly in the coming weeks for both silver and gold. I won't speculate on targets, but from here a peak in gold and silver can come at anytime. It will be very difficult to predict price action. But once it comes, it will be equivalent to the May 2006 peak IMO. You won't want to be long the metals.

This is not a good place for investing in the metals.

GLGT.

cheers,

john

hi john, why not take both cycles into consideration. ??? a top very soon and another top late aug-oct? w/ corrections after both tops.
its what my work is indicating!
dharma

[SilentOne]

dharma, The tricky part is that the coming top projects to be as significant as the May 2006 top. I don't consider 2006 a particularly good year after that May high. cheers, john

[dharma]

dharma,

The tricky part is that the coming top projects to be as significant as the May 2006 top. I don't consider 2006 a particularly good year after that May high.

cheers,

john

yes, i agree, its why i am considering having more than 15% cash. i am anticipating another whiff of deflation. or deflation rearing its head. knocking the metals below that 1310 low and a larger correction in the miners.
i dont think that it will be long in duration, but deep in price.
dharma

[SilentOne]

dharma, NEM looks exactly the way it did after the 2006 top. The HUI topped in May of that year, but NEM topped out in Jan, earlier as it usually does. That also lines up with the kind of peak I expect in the metals (ie. 60 month cycle) about due anytime, so it will be time to be nimble IMO. GLGT. cheers, john

[dougie]

the miners are already acting generally sick, especially the juniors, many of which hare sporting 38% retraces Dharma: you still think we have one more blast? In metals maybe with shares diverging more?

[dharma]

the miners are already acting generally sick, especially the juniors, many of which hare sporting 38% retraces
Dharma: you still think we have one more blast? In metals maybe with shares diverging more?

dougie, you mean from this morning where i posted that after the 13th i expect a blast. so far, it looks to me like the miners have worked off an overbought condition w/o giving too much ground.
and when you give #s like 38% retrace , from where? if i take each day in the bull market and make a judgment on that w/o any past history, its meaningless.
i need a frame of reference. eg. in past corrections, 38% was the norm, larger than the norm,smaller than the norm. i cant have a myopic point of view and expect to ride the bull. i need a frame of reference. in my 31 years of doing this, opportunities where there are real bull/bear markets are not very often. and one that i can take a seat on and go for the ride are even fewer. hopefully, when this is over i wont have any regrets. how about you???????
dharma