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[opinionated]

Stock market newsletter advisors are extremely bullish. Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 57.3% Bulls versus 15.7% Bears as of 4/6/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio soared to 3.65, up from 2.23 the previous week. The Ratio now stands at its highest level in 8 years, its highest since the 20-year high of 3.74 set on 6/18/03. Following that 2003 peak in bullish sentiment, the stock market turned sideways/choppy for 2 months and sentiment reverted toward the mean. The Ratio's 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.56, and the mean is 1.63. >b>The Art of Contrary Opinion might suggest caution. S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,335.54) rose above 6-week highs intraday at 9:45 a.m. on Wednesday but gave up much of its early gain to close below the open and below the highs of Monday and Tuesday. Trading volume rose 5% on the NYSE, but volume indicators continue to underperform price indicators. Volume has remained at low levels as price rebounded from its low of 3/16/11, possibly reflecting trader hesitation to chase prices higher. The minor short-term trend became overbought and has lost upside momentum. Each of the past 6 trading days are Spinning Top Candlesticks, indicating indecision and exhaustion. The SPX and other large cap indexes failed to close above closing price highs of the previous 2-years and, therefore, did not confirm Monday's 2-year highs for the Dow-Jones Industrials and Transports.