SectorVue weekend comments for Monday April 11th , 2011
April Showers?
After a bouncing up from oversold levels the market became overbought and
indicators are now headed down. Our Diamond Jim indicator topped out and is
headed for a test of bearish territory. Income GPS portfolio is up 6.08% in
appreciation plus an average dividend of 9.8% as we finish up the first quarter of 2011.
Our objective is to keep our principal safe and even growing a bit as we collect hefty
dividends keeping one eye on the weather vane to protect against market squalls.
With adverse headline news petering out the market appears tired itself. The
diversified IncomeGPS is going strong and steady. March was a good month for
collecting dividends and some stocks announced dividend increases which is an extra
bonus. (see pages 5 and 6) This is how the total return tortoise beats the high growth
hare in portfolio returns while minimizing portfolio volatility. The Prevailing Wind
indicator is headed South after a strong gust to the upside. If this indicator turns
bearish and more stocks are going down than up momentum traders will throw in the
towel. The Growth vs Value ratio (page 12) also ran out of steam as investors take
profits on growth stocks on the bounce and park money in defensive Value stocks.
Email incomegps@unrulydog.com for a sample of our high dividend paying stocks.
The Dow Jones finished the week up only 3 points while the Nasdaq 100 NDX fell off
21 points. The Russell RUT and Midcap MID indices had the worst action and appear to
be topping out.
Sector Action for last week was minus 683 with 13 Sectors up and 22 down . The
Market Barometer is one down day away from triggering an overbought Sell. (see graph
on page 4)
Rydex Alerts- Bearish Russell with market measures overbought.
Short term Trading indicators- overbought Sells
Market Breadth - Cumulative Market Breadth has stopped going up and is also a down day away
from triggering a Sell signal.
(see top right graph p 4)
INTERMEDIATE TERM TRENDS- Neutral
INTERMEDIATE OSCILLATOR - overbought
With negative news headlines getting stale the market appears toppy with short and longer
term market measures either on or about to trigger a Sell signal. The plunge protection
team continues to buy every dip and propping up market indices even as broad based
market internals show signs of vulnerability.
Biotech BTK - Top of the Sector rankings led by the Cephelon CEPH takeover and
Human Genome HGSI. Usually the biotech Sector leads the Technology Sector and
then the market higher however both are lagging. Biotech can go it alone with the next
cure for the common cold or other independent events such as mergers.
Gold XAU- Decidedly into the top ranks which is a sign of institutional accumulation. Our
Goldcorp GG holding is up over 10% in just a few weeks.
Pharmaceutical DRG -Into the top ranks led by Astrozeneca AZN. Nearly all of the
stocks in this Sector are in slight up trends.
Ultra ETF’s- Ultra SP500 ETFs SSO and Bearish NDX QID are trading vehicles with
nice daily ranges.
Cyclical CYC- Fell in overall rank with 3M MMM, Sears Holding SHLD and Hewlette
Packard HPQ finding some sellers.
Broker Dealer XBD- Still in the lowest rankings. We have rarely if ever seen the overall
market make new highs with the brokerage stocks making recent lows.
Technology TXX- Nothing but selling here as well with Apple AAPL breaking support.
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No representation is made that strategies will produce a profit.
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SectorVue Comments
Started by
TTHQ Staff
, Apr 14 2011 12:11 PM
No replies to this topic