www.toddmarketforecast.com
Todd Market Forecast for Tuesday April 12, 2011
Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.
DOW - 118 on 1450 net declines
NASDAQ COMP - 27 on 1350 net declines
SHORT TERM TREND Bearish
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish
A somewhat overbought market had a lot to contend with today. In the early going, German economic sentiment weighed on European bourses. Then the Japanese upgraded their nuclear disaster from a 5 to a 7 which was on par with Chernobyl.
Of course, Alcoa was the subject of much discussion. They started out the earnings season with a disappointment in top line growth. The stock was down 6%.
Probably the big story was a general commodity sell by Goldman Sachs. This took its toll on gold and oil and a lot of commodity related stocks.
After four straight down sessions for the S&P 500 and a one day reading of 1.13 for the CBOE put call ratio, we are probably near a bounce.
But, we’re a bit concerned that the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite have turned down before bettering the previous high. We can see this in the weekly chart below.
The dollar was down and gold, silver, copper and crude oil were hit pretty good. Bonds managed a gain.
BOTTOM LINE:
Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.
System 2 traders are in cash. Stay there on Tuesday.
System 7 traders sold the SPY at 131.35 for a gain of 3.20. Stay in cash on Wednesday.
NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:
The trade deficit was $45.8 billion. This was more than the previous level of $47.8 billion.
OTHER MARKETS
We’re on a sell for bonds as of April 6.
We’re on a sell for the dollar and a buy for the euro as of March 17.
We’re on a buy for gold as of February 3.
We’re on a buy for silver as of February 1. .
We’re on a buy for copper as of March 23.
We’re moving back to a sell for crude oil as of today April 12.
We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.
STEPHEN TODD
A SHORT BIOGRAPHY
Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a monthly stock market newsletter with an included nightly hotline.
Steve has published articles on the stock market in the following publications: Barron’s, Stock Market Magazine, Futures Magazine, The National Educator, and others.
His stock market commentary is heard on the following stations: CNBC, Bloomberg, Associated Press Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW in Vancouver, British Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in Toronto, Ontario.
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TODD MARKET FORECAST
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