26 replies to this topic

[stubaby]

What can change the present trends (or perceptions thereof)?

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD:$CRB&p=W&st=1996-01-01&en=2011-12-31&i=p20443998851&a=224809002&r=580.png

I started looking at this chart of GOLD:CRB Ratio for clues as to what might unfold in the months and years ahead!

Looks to run back to at least 'top line' (The 64,000 Dollar question is will CRB fall faster than GOLD or will GOLD outperform a rise in the CRB?) (Either way I'd want to be in GOLD) What other factors are in play:

1) FEDERAL RESERVE (inept with no heuvos)
2) US Dollar crisis with real meaningful breakdown imminent (often the mix that creates bottoms!) But why?
3) Failure or Near Failure (we don't let them fail now) of a major US Financial institution not to be named
4) A new Terrorist Attack on the US of A Homeland (seems the PTB are otherwise occupied)
5) OTHER

The list could go on and on, but from a purely "MACRO" point of view this is a true "INFLECTION POINT" - something's gotta give!

Previous TT Post

stubaby


PS My insticts say "If you are a "contrarian" BEWARE!

[stubaby]

Aussie Dollar Looks to be accelerating to the upside too!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XAD&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&i=p87155430616&a=190206189&r=247.png


stubaby

[cgnx]

Love your charts Stub. This is truly exciting stuff. This will be the Daddy of all BULLS. Its so very obvious. I cant believe we have a topic, Top formation. Actually I'll believe just about anything these days. Put your trading hat away and enjoy the easiest money ever made. Long and strong.

[stubaby]

The April 27 news conference, the first in the Federal Reserve's history, begins at 2:15 p.m. ET when the quarterly forecast from the Federal Open Markets Committee is issued. Bernanke then makes an opening statement followed by questions for the next 45 minutes or so.

1st FED News Conference



stubaby

[stubaby]

It was both "sad" and somewhat "funny" hearing the anchors covering Bernanke's news-conference during his opening statement cutting away because of the "technical drivel" he was spouting in an obviously disdainful manner - I guess you "get what you give".

Love the symmetry here in the US dollar - "intermediate-term" low just ahead (next 4-6 weeks) IMHO. Bounce will be "short & sweet" - maybe back to that "pesky" center-line one last time!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USD&p=M&st=1990-01-01&en=2013-12-31&i=p54032460112&a=183376214&r=635.png

stubaby

[johngeorge]

Thanks stubaby You always bring those great charts and top shelf analysis. Best to you. PS Noticed your slw trade and it looks to me like you have been playing that like a sweet stradivarius.

[stubaby]

3-month t-bill rates collapse after FED meeting!
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$IRX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p28600730646&a=183995324&r=549.png

Gold:Silver Ratio trying to bottom here (Gold playing catch-up)!
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD:$SILVER&p=W&yr=11&mn=3&dy=0&i=p34254357899&a=198432410&r=8663.png
http://stockcharts.c...2746&r=2111.png
http://stockcharts.c...02245&r=950.png

stubaby

[stubaby]

US Dollar: WOW - the latest decline is "too orderly"!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p55867037625&a=183376210&r=9434.png

Everybody seems to be "waiting" and "expecting" a bottom - NO REAL FEAR - may need to break the 2008 low to create some headlines!

stubaby

[beta]

Hi Stu, Thanks for sharing your excellent TA work on the USD, which I am also watching closely. My guess is we hit 68 then bounce to 74-75, before resuming the decline. While I've seen several references to bounce target 78, given the band of horizontal resistance around 74-75, I am doubtful whether USD can climb back above those levels. ------- My 8-year weekly chart of GLD:USD shows that this ratio recently broke above the normal channel @ 2.09, and is now in a parabolic channel that targets roughly 2.8 by EoY. (Wish I could post this chart but my file upload allowance on TT appears to be limited despite recent $$ contributions). One possible solution to this target 2.8 ratio is 1800:64. However, given that this ratio is accelerating, it could be that $Gold does not sell off much on the anticipated USD bounce. The 3-year daily $Gold chart shows solid support around 1445.

Edited by beta, 01 May 2011 - 05:22 PM.

[stubaby]

Hi Stu,

Thanks for sharing your excellent TA work on the USD, which I am also watching closely.

My guess is we hit 68 then bounce to 74-75, before resuming the decline.

While I've seen several references to bounce target 78, given the band of horizontal resistance around 74-75, I am doubtful whether USD can climb back above those levels.

-------

My 8-year weekly chart of GLD:USD shows that this ratio recently broke above the normal channel @ 2.09, and is now in a parabolic channel that targets roughly 2.8 by EoY.

(Wish I could post this chart but my file upload allowance on TT appears to be limited despite recent $$ contributions).

One possible solution to this target 2.8 ratio is 1800:64. However, given that this ratio is accelerating, it could be that $Gold does not sell off much on the anticipated USD bounce.

The 3-year daily $Gold chart shows solid support around 1445.

beta:

Don't know the low on the US Dollar here ($68 makes sense), but we must see it in the MSM, which I believe we will when we break through the 2008 lows. Hopefully then generate SOME fear - NO FEAR - NO BOTTOM! Interesting S&P 500 +2.85% return in April vs US Dollar 3.72% loss!

Check out EagleCharts on StockCharts Public List. Some great work!

Agree on the "summer swoon" support areas for GOLD - 1,400-1,450 and rising! I will look to "lighten-up" between now and mid-June in preparation - if it goes any lower it would be a "gift"!

Cheers,

stubaby