McMillan Analysis Corporation
P. O. Box 1323, Morristown, NJ 07962 1323 800-724-1817
Email: info@optionstrategist.com
Thursday, June 9th, 2011
The broad stock market has been under more selling pressure in the
last two weeks than in the previous nine months. Intermediate-term
indicators are all bearish at the current time, but after five weeks of
selling, some oversold conditions have arisen.
First, the chart of $SPX is in a downtrend, and that is bearish.
The equity-only put-call ratios (Figures 2&3) have remained on
sell signals since mid-April. They are racing higher now, and by their
sheer height might be considered a bit oversold.
Breadth has been very negative. Breadth indicators have
been on sell signals for some time.
The volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) spiked up to nearly 20
last Friday, when the market sold off sharply on bad unemployment
numbers. That was supposedly bullish, but no rally materialized,
and so we view $VIX as slightly bearish at this time.
In summary, the intermediate-term indicators are negative (with
the possible exception of $VIX). The oversold conditions may foster
a rally, but as long as $SPX is trending downward, the
bears are in charge.
McMillan Analysis Corp.
Info@OptionStrategist.com
(973)328-6219
www.OptionStrategist.com
