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[arbman]

So far after the great surge of 2009 after the world of finance ended came the last minute patch of 2010, now we have the volatility in 2011 seemingly the big big top. The first drop into March was similar to 2005 and it got reflated back up and then it started to sell back down after hitting the new highs. We did not have much of a decline in January like it happened in 2005, neither the sell off into March was that bad. I think Fed intervened a lot less in 2005 than it did now and we did not have these outright QE (printing) programs either. Bernanke started a new culture in Fed, the pre-announced printing campaigns. You thought Greenspan was easy on the money? These will go into the history books one day... Anyway, amazingly, there was a moment after a month of decline in August of 2005 that ended up with a surge that was sharply given back into September. We had such a surge in November of 2007 as well around thanksgiving after a down November, these were all after the secondary tops, they usually followed a trading range or the market managed to somewhat rally for a month. These led me to conclude that any plunge was deferred till the end of the month for June of 2011, so I faded these sharp declines. But the rally so far is not that impressive... In 2005 though, when all seemed to be ending, then a great rally emerged, it was ahead of Bernanke's Fed though, but Greenspan was leaving and he probably just inflated before he did, I think we discussed about it here. So now, this gives me a little perspective, the cycle lows are due in 2013 or so or late 2012, in a sense you have the 2006's dip coming up for late 2011 or early 2012, but then 2005 was still a volatile but OK year. It could be for 2011 as well, if in fact we get a rally in July... As unlikely as it seems to have a rally in July, it happened in 2005. On the other hand, you have many intermediate term cycle lows due at the end of the month --which explains the stiff resistance at 1292 at the moment and this is why I sold in my discretionary trading...

Edited by arbman, 14 June 2011 - 03:31 PM.