No replies to this topic

[viccarter]

I opened long 1/4 TNA last Friday EOD and I had 1 predominate thesis: that this week would close up. Beyond that, I also felt shorts would be frustrated if they piled on and were waiting for a washout after 6 weeks of downtrend, and that the frustration might be measured in weeks not days. Weekly charts were quite OS, and daily MCO looking like positive divergence short term charts confirmed my thesis and RVX was very stretched on the daily. Monday opened down, and I managed my position poorly, trading scared Monday morning and then selling a few handles in the green midday more as a relief. Needless to say, I missed the Tuesday rally.

Daily RUT



15 min TF bottoming last week.



I was cautious about a retrace, Wednesday but chose not to take any shorts. As a personal trading rule, I have decided not to short any 60 minute high coming off a (possible) daily/weekly swing low. I adoped this after a couple of bad swing trades earlier in the year that I took off these bottoms. I was beginning to think we would not retrace and got hurt some in the late afternoon post Bernake sell off.

This morning marked a clear buy area for me on both my 45 min breadth charts and also generated a RVX 60 minute buy. I like to daytrade fading these RVX 60 closes above +3 sigma (long only, never short 60 min RVX outside of -3), and it works alot, especially in a daily uptrend but cannot be used without discretion because it can be nasty when it doesn't work and if volatility is due to news, I don't fade that. Today's 45 breadth confluence along with the RVX 60 gave me a buy that I had some confidence to hold through the day.



Again, I expect shorts to get their washout, but for now, I think its gonna take some event/reaction. Some things on the horizon include NFP in July and the next earnings season. Will be long or flat for the time being. I look at Traders-Talk and X-Trends when a new post is up. I also attend those free webnars that Fari Hamzai puts up every couple weeks. No more Twitter. No more TV financial news (except for entertainment). Been that way for a couple months and trading so much better.

Edited by viccarter, 24 June 2011 - 12:30 AM.