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[Macro Speculator]

...it has finally arrived as of the close on Friday. As I posted, I got out of my puts at 1287 Friday morning to see what the rest of the day would bring...and the rallies were pathetic...people were dumping into any relief rallies all week long actually, not just Friday. I actually don't think this is the beginning of a major decline, but it should be good for 1220-30ish over the coming month (say another 5% or so from here). I think we are ready to break the March lows now...maybe hold the April 2010 1219 high....get a bounce from that area in the fall, and then get ready to start the big move lower. I will look to reshort or buy puts early this week into any pop we might get here toward the 1300 area. This past week was a brutal (and somewhat expected) breakdown for the bulls...we closed under the previous week's low (which many thought was an important bottom to rally from), failed at an obvious double top area, and finally saw a rising VIX. I believe it's time for another run to the downside.

Edited by Macro Speculator, 31 July 2011 - 02:27 PM.