I'm looking at a printout of July 25th when the SPY was at 134.50 (I know, just a few weeks ago!)
the ATM 135 Call cost .90 cents with an IV of 14.8% and a delta of 44 with 7 days remaining
so, a $2 move in the SPY gets you a double.
now the ATM 112 Call costs 3.30 with an IV of 67% and a delta of 52, with 4 days remaining
so it takes a $6 move to get a double,
and you dont even wanna hear about theta!
I'm not breaking any new ground here, just pointing it out.
Makes me think even if you're right, unless you're spreading, you have little to no chance of making any money unless you thread the needle just perfectly.
I'm not sure how much the days remaining makes a difference in terms of delta, but I think the point I'm makin here stands regardless.
Obviously if you got in as the slide was happening, this IV surge is irrelevant
Even if you get the direction/bottom right, the IV's kill ya!
Started by
KoacNation
, Aug 09 2011 12:01 AM
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