4 replies to this topic

[ecpinto]

XAU Chart

This is a bullish chart, I would be buying on pullbacks here when it gets to the green line....or better still the white line....question is....will it get there?

Comments appreciated

[swanstkdh]

looks like 85.26 to me for support.

[thoughtpwr]

I would agree in general with your conclusions. I would, however, be on the lookout for a vertical move in the next three days in the XAU that would never get to the MOVs. Why would that happen? I believe that we are in a B wave that must make a marginal new high before a substantive down move is made, in order that the bull market remain in tact. I believe we will get a C that may not go to the same lower levels that we have seen, however we will come down later at the 9 m. cycle low later this year. I had worked out a pattern I thought it would trace out over the next couple of years, based upon previous silver commoditiy bull markets, about a year ago. It has followed roughly, except for going deeper than I had it going on this most recent decline (I had 87). In addition, I would contend that the market is undergoing corrections of the magnitude that you are suggesting occur with the individual stocks already. For instance BGO underwent a correction of that magnitude this week, where I added two positions. CDE appears to be undergoing just such a correction now, where I intend to add a couple positions on Monday. Others have clearly not, like RANGY. Another oddity, was the fourth gap up we just saw. I thought it would pause after the third gap and retrace, but it hasn't. Something strange is at work here. Clearly, you are correct that in most circumstances it should come down and get support, where you would buy. However, that is what the majority would expect. I also think that a lot of additional fear and disbelief is in this rally continuing, which is getting a lot of publicity and, which enable the XAU to rise rapidly. I am concerned that the market will run away from me, if I am not participating right now. I am trying to rotate into stocks that are showing corrections to minimize risk, even though the average is not correcting. If we do correct on the average, it may be the stocks not in the average that make their move, as they have been lagging (MNG, NXG). You started to see some of that today. Clearly, the big stocks (NEM, SIL, ABX, etc. will behave as the average and this may be where to get in on them. I was underwater at the bottom, and so was not adding to positions until some of the first smaller corrections occurred. I missed out on the larger stocks as they didn't correct. Maybe this is my opportunity. I am concerned that we will tank if we correct too much in time and will go down to where Ike and others are projecting the bottom should have been. Where as we will surprise the most by jumping up to the 103 level quickly. I think that is where we get a correction, before making a new high. Thx, EJ

[swanstkdh]

will also add to cde on next market day. added to bgo and have enjoyed drooy moving now.

[SilentOne]

Thoughtpwr, Interesting musings. I have been calling this wave 3-1 of a large 3rd wave that has begun from the May 10th low. I've been nicked badly in April, my downfall was trying to anticipate this large move which I think is before us. Wave 3-1 will run to marginal new highs (eg. XAU target 111-113), then we pull back in a wave 3-2 conslidation. The real show begins later this summer IMO. I have posted this viewpoint repeatedly this month at every baord I visit. No one shares this possibility. And that is why I think I am on track with this. Also note that I read at Stockcharts that the %bulls on the XAU was zero on May 11th. Zero! Do you think that marked a major low? I count the latest low as simply a wave 2 bottom. This move into June should be very strong if it is a 3-1. Also note on trendlines, there are two possible trendlines from the May 10th lows. I am not sure if the steeper one will hold (rate = approx 1 XAU pt. rise per day), but if not, I bet the lower trendline holds right into the highs I am projecting. Target date is July 2. Barry Rosen has this date as an important turn for gold and I bet it is a top (of wave 3-1). I agree with you that we will run to the low 100s next without much of a pullback. My count for this current leg is that we are somewhere in a wave 3-3 from the May 10th low. I want to also note that I called the May10th bottom target on the XAU. Not that it got me much, but at least I didn't dump core positions on the Monday as I knew it was the reversal day. It will be interesting to see how this all unfolds against the seasonals. I noted your last post and am watching carefully. cheers, john