222 replies to this topic

[johngeorge]

Full moon! Parabolic SAR buy signal on HUI today! Is this the start of the launch??????????

[dharma]

seems to me, most are waiting for a test of 1530, today the fed minutes get revealed. did they discuss qe3?
still early for me, but obviously, i take whatever the market gives, including these corrective poundings. the reality is the currency is badly flawed , as is all the fiats world wide. we are going to higher #s in the cycle , and it is occurring on a daily basis. sitting and waiting
is the gold in fort knox?
http://www.youtube.c...player_embedded

embry
http://kingworldnews..._From_Here.html

i am not a conspiracy theorist or advocate, it doesnt make me a dime to cry foul. @some level all the markets are manipulated. how does that help me to make money. what doesnt change is human nature. @the top everyone wants to own whatever it is. tulip bulbs! cmgi, jdsu! it doesnt matter. gold is the ultimate story, w/5k years of history. the market will fluctuate, dont get fluctuated out of your position. this is your insurance policy!
oh yeah today is a bradley
dharma

Edited by dharma, 12 October 2011 - 09:54 AM.

[dougie]

Stu: are you looking for a wave 5 down here and now per that chart? beautiful counting

If this is correct - should see some "upside" fireworks soon!

http://stockcharts.c...05-02&en=(today)&i=p05932094390&a=235946063&r=5108.png

stubaby

[dharma]

the pattern in the miners and their .382 retracement has kept me waiting for the cycle bottom. not convinced that the low was in or not. in the big picture its splitting hairs, wearing my trading hat, its critical. by mid next week the picture should clear up. as i have pointed out a #of times, bonds are in a topping pattern. how that plays out will be very interesting. as bond holders start to rack up losses, where will their money go. these are either conservative investors or those seeking yields to live on. the elderly , those looking for returns, have been nailed to the wall in this bond bull. i remember trying to buy munis on the right shoulder lows in 84, no one had any. the yields were juicy as they will be again, the question becomes, will the government pay. and that is the risk. and i dont have answers. history shows that sovereigns either renege or print. its why using a constant, dollar terms, is so difficult. a dollar does not buy today what it did in any past decade. of course the exception today is real estate. real estate is the most leveraged vehicle (except for derivatives) today as stocks were in 29. my assumption has been a 90% haircut awaits real estate. not much to say for the gold market. its one of those waiting periods. lets see if support holds up. i dont know if it will be a zig zag or a flat. my guess a flat. but , its just that. dharma

[stubaby]

Stu: are you looking for a wave 5 down here and now per that chart? beautiful counting

dougie:

Corrections are not easy!

As dharma states - it's too early to tell, but three(3) possible paths here IMHO and all three are forms of a "flat or zig zag':

• ABC zig zag complete at 1,525 low with new highs ahead (20%)
• A (abc) of zig zag complete at 1,525 low - now in Wave B - target 1,775, with Wave C down targeting 1,525ish for flat and lower for zig zag (40%)
• In Wave 4 of Wave C of zig zag with Wave 5 ahead to complete pattern near 1,450-1,475 (40%)

Short-term obviously in consolidation with boundaries defined:

Upside
1. the 38.2% Fib level at 1,683
2. the initial August low of 1,705
3. 5-week moving average - today at 1,684

A move up through these levels could allow a run up towards the last breakdown area and 61.8% FIB at 1,775, which could be the next inflection point.

Downside
Any move below 1,585-1,600 would be near-term bearish and indicate Wave C still in progress.

My personal preference would be for the Wave 5 down here to complete Wave C, as I believe the odds then of a move to new highs would increase and time-wise we would be 'back in bull mode' into the 1st Quarter 2012.

Bottom line is we are in a corrective in a BULL Market that has many years to run and is really just getting started with the next phase to bring in intstitutional $ (we haven't even scratched the surface into individual investors yet - "the mania" - remember NASDAQ 1998-2000) with patience and calm persistance you can "ride the bull" - those without will fall off or buy-in during the parabola.

stubaby The best time to plant a tree is twenty years ago. The second best time is today

[dharma]

in a battle here! from a time point of view , i expect the pressure to ease up by mid next week, but who knows, it could take longer. so many irons in the fire. not very inspirational. so we wait. dharma

[dharma]

just read the sequence of posts on this page, it pretty much sums up the condition in the present market. dharma

[dharma]

so the g20 meets over the weekend. what are their choices? of course its all in the wording! 1)down the rabbit hole- we are going to take fiscal responsibility or 2) we kick the can down the road and we print. of course its how they say any of this . buckle up dharma

[stubaby]

Noticed this Trendline from an old chart (2 touches from below and 2 touches from the top), could be downside limit IF we get a Wave 5 down to complete Wave C

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p48587234920&a=246270726&r=882.png

stubaby

[stubaby]

so the g20 meets over the weekend. what are their choices?
of course its all in the wording!
1)down the rabbit hole- we are going to take fiscal responsibility
or
2) we kick the can down the road and we print.
of course its how they say any of this .
buckle up
dharma

Geithner, G-20 Threaten to Use 'The Bazooka' While Searching for Ammo