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[arbman]

The market needs an incredible reversal today by the close to negate the setup. Otherwise any bounce out of this today will be still a sell. I see the relative strength in nasdaq stocks and semis, but I am not convinced. We had the nasdaq taking off about a week ago with an island reversal that came smashing down for NYSE stocks. Beside the weekly confirmations, now the monthly confirmations are likely to trigger as the prices approach to the cycle lows due around the Fed meeting. The leadership in the days of Fed operations are still energy, although the tech stocks market performed. Otherwise the only sectors underperforming the declines are the defensives (utils, health care, staples). No bull market is born this way, we need a fresh new low, but breaking below Tuesday should lead to another 80 points lower on SPX. Maybe Nasdaq underperforms into the next lows due at the end of the month, it would set up an IT low for the 20 wk cycle BOUNCE anyway. I believe the cyclical highs are in, we are in a bear market... Have a great weekend, out.