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[Master Che]

ES – TOP FORMATION IN PLAY 11/20/11 3:15EST ESZ11: I wrote this on 10/7/11 10/7/11 Closing Comments: “Yesterday we developed a top pattern, although this top pattern is the first of three patterns (to come), meaning 2 more top patterns before completing the top formation. The top pattern formation is a series of further developing top patterns; Within the next 75 hours we will develop another similar pattern; generally larger, and then a third pattern. Not taking out 1251.25 within 60 hours confirms the top formation is developing as planned. The Potential top formation MUST be completed within 277 hours from yesterdays high at 1216.00 (10/12 – 3:30EST) 10/28/11 Closing Comments There is a distinct possibility today we put in a top at 1289.25, but I need a few more hours to calculate and factor, but the preliminary calculations indicate we have a potential top in place and have completed the top formation pattern (3 top patterns and 262 hours expired from the 10/12 high; 1st top pattern) It appears we have completed the 3rd top pattern within the top formation; we’ve been developing and updating since 10/7 As such 1283.25 is the key resistance level immediately determining this possible scenario and in the event we head down from current levels (we should) then the following levels will indicate and confirm this possibility; 1207.25 is the on switch for the top formation NOW 11/20/11 on 11/17 we reached the on switch for the top formation pattern; normally after reaching the on switch we immediately head back up in effort to reach the lower floating wall of the pattern at 1239.50 (1st high); on 11/18 the bounce reached 1229.75; generally these reflex bounces have three higher highs before failing; The 1st timer turn since reaching the on switch is another 28 hours. This particular top formation is irregular in time and range; Majority of the time these irregular patterns head back up (after reaching the on switch) and marginally take out the previous high (1289.25 - 4.00 to 12.00 pts higher) and then it sharply sells-off, not doing so is extremely bearish, but before concerning ourselves with this particular feature, first and foremost it must take out the floating (upward slope) lower wall currently at 1239.50, until we reach the confirmation of the top in place level, discussing to how low we reach is rather speculative. Now/Immediate term: We’re still a down extension: Down to 1205.75 – taking out 1234.00 cancels the extension Down to 1197.75 – taking out 1236.50 cancels the extension Tonight’s first 30 minutes of trading is quite pivotal It determines if we head down to pick off the down extension targets or head back up in attempt to reach the floating lower wall (1239.50 sloping upward) or and 1234 and 1236.50 1212.50/75 is the key support as such 1224.25 to 1225.50 is the resistance as such IMO the immediate move is down to 1193.75; because 1229.50 is the pivotal resistance for a (11/17) pattern of which the down target is 1193.75; on 11/18 the bounce failed at the patterns pivotal resistance. Only the event we trade above this pivot do I alter my bias.

Edited by Master Che, 20 November 2011 - 03:21 PM.