first two weeks of Jan. 1253 was a pivotal Fibannoci, perhaps
it will retest this area in early Jan but from higher first.
Just by aversion to debt instruments and a prepricing of equity
to dollar count earning metrics. Perhaps the worst it is the better
for stock.
This is what weekly will look like at a 1301 price next week.
I'm not saying this will happen, timing wise we have until the
end of month thrust day to find out what the price will be.
195 minute should have two peaks, Tues and Thurs, likely
dip or compression day Weds. The 195 min high should be
Thurs noon but it could be Friday
It will be well extended above average with the most likely
mean regression in the 1st two weeks Jan, where the weekly average
is flat and the 195 minute has a dip. Daily will also be well extended
above average with a mean regression likely.
It will have the next high at about 7 weeks. A 43 week peaks a little
sooner at 5 weeks. In the QE market with persistent price weakness
and distribution, it almost always pays to liquidate in the early highs
and watch the index games from cash.
This is where people get long late on the early high with breadth,
and the final couple weeks of distribution chew up the long accounts
and it always starts with multipoint crashes in some big stocks.
I'll try to note the thrust day that would be the 43 week peak and
then muse about the next couple weeks of distribution and stock crashes.
It does seem to prevent a crash in 2012 yet it is a long time to 7 weeks
or so to see how it forms up. The only chance for a good decline is
a mean regression in the first two weeks of Jan but I expect now that
it tests this breakout area from higher first.
