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Inflation & money supply up, Gold down?


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#1 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

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Posted 06 June 2004 - 10:36 AM

Here is a quote from John Mauldin's weekly newsletter:

My conclusion/observation/conjecture is that the unwinding of the carry
trade is in process. The funds which have made so much over the last
year on these trades are now paying the price to lock in their profits. Thus,
the speculation that drove commodities and all manner of investments to
overbought levels is being driven from the market.
Thus, you see copper and gold dropping, interest rates rise as speculators sell their long bonds and all manner of market moves as margin clerks require funds to maintaincash levels.
They do not care where the cash comes from, so funds that have
less liquid derivative positions and also gold exposure may be selling gold
to raise cash, as an example. (Why else would gold be dropping as inflation
is rising and the money supply is exploding?)
Or it could be copper or
Russian stocks which get hammered by the margin clerks (could we once again be
talking value and Russian stocks in the same breath?).

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