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#1 nimblebear

nimblebear

    Welcome to the Dark Side !

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Posted 21 February 2012 - 05:04 PM

and other blah,blah,blah boring MSM rants. Enough already ! The media has so overblown and pundited about Greece, that truly its the most non-newsworthy item, to be ever baked into a market. And that also goes for nearly everything else. There isn't nothun' and I mean nothun' that hasn't been microscopically analyzed, scrutinized, even blasphemized ad nauseum about anything financial that might WRECK the world's or the US economy. In fact, I think its now an impossibility of a trillion to 1 odds, that anything could be a "black swan" that hasn't been baked into the market. If Greece defaults - it won't matter. If they don't, it won't matter. If hedgies blow up, or people putting up the faux billions go under it won't matter. In fact if derivatives betting for a default, or betting against a default, or protecting a creditor for default all implode it won't matter. Why ??? Because quite simply, we live in a world where everything can be immediately papered over. Its all just digital I's and O's. There is no recourse for anything, bad, or even good. We live now in a world where all consequences have been eliminated. banksters get off scot free. Homeowners who bought homes get off largely scot free, even if they walk. Politicians have no scruntiny, or face any consequences for their actions no matter how previously egregious they might have been considered by society at large. The S&P's, Moody's, and other ratings agencies face no consequences. In fact,, its all risk off. We no longer live in a world that has any risk. Everything has a financial hedge, and I mean EVERYTHING. its all now hedged to complete NEUTRAL ! This is validated by the Vix. Among other simplistic measures. Extremely low interest rates, mean no risks. for the few people who pay high rates, or the few who lend and get usurious rates, there really isn't any risk to them either. You "know" the right people, or even if you don't know, the central banks, supported by the masses of the billions of world citizens, are completely at will to wand away any risks. They will come to your complete 'rescue.' Complacency as a contrarian signal is no longer a valid instrument or indicator. If you accept the notion there is no risk, then truly there can be no complacency either. Its now a risk free, complacency free world. Scratch those words from your vernacular. So why anyone would be shorting equities right now is beyond me. Further, why anyone would stay long equities is beyond me too. Same thing with the instruments known as bonds. As without risk, there can be little to no "reward." you only earn vast sums of money, by being able and willing to take risk. Since there is none, its highly unlikely you will be able to make money, using money, and financial instruments purely as your means. So bonds and equities have virtually no real value any more, as vehicles to grow 'wealth.' especially if they are denominated in the US currency. This simple math, logic, and deducement folks. You can make all the forecasts you want about these markets but they will be wrong. Plain and simple. You can't make forecasts in a period of extreme manipulation, where the manipulation has eliminated all notions of risk and reward. Everything for all intents is purely neutral. Its neither of benefit, nor of harm. It may sound like smoke and mirrors but its all true. Thats why I have no emotion, or worry about any paper gains or losses that I may have in my 401. Its all meaningless digital I's and O's. The dollars they may be eventually "valued out" when taken out, might only be worth a trillionth of what they are now. Or the opposite. Its what happened in Zimbabwe, Argentina, and many other similar instances throughout history. The currency we have is meaningless. Other than what it can do for you this minute, this hour, this day. To the next day, or beyond, there is no value whatsoever. Any projected stream of earnings has no value either, if its priced in US dollars. That's largely true as well for most other currencies. I know most of you will honestly say, if you've read this far, it cannot be true. The illusion of wealth you may think you have, is just that. Same thing with this illusion of the Federal debt, or SS liabilities, or medicaid/medicare liabilities. Why ? Because there is absolutely no guarantee any of it will ever have to be payed out. And because there is no guarantee, and people are no longer held accountable for anything, then any illusion of a promise, or a seeming "debt" simply is no longer relevant. this is how folks, the Fed can get away with printing money ad infinitum, how the national deficit, and debt can be run up essentially forever. and how markets and equities and bonds no longer have any real value. Its how greece is staying in existence today. Sure there are a few riots and buildings being burnt but thats just emotion. otherwise, this is all trading fiction. So unless you can spend every single dime you think you "own", today, or right this minute, its of no use or value past today. Each day is new. Each day its all reset. It could be gone tomorrow, just as easily as you could die within the next minute hour or day. This is what happens when the world becomes internet based, and essentially time and 'currency' is warped to near instantaneous. You cannot go broke. You cannot get super wealthy where everything imaginable can be bought. Unless you can somehow consume it all instantaneously. not an easy thing. Broke is merely a state of mind. As is homelessness, and poverty. Defining your 'worth' in financial terms is incredibly worthless, and irrelevant to the world we live in now. And so all this hype, or MSM nonsense has gone beyond ad nauseum with Greece, and everything else, and into meaningless blather. as is 99.99% of the news you read on the internet, see on TV, or google on your ipad. P.S. Preppers, prepsters, armagedonists, all crack me up. i think they are just there to amuse and entertain the rest of us. or to keep the economy going ? ;) :o
OTIS.