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[Islander]

we are all dead. (Keynes). Its the ugly shortrun that concerns us today.
see Clarke, Keynes, 2009, Bloomsbury Press. (the radical he is alleged to be?)

In the meanwhile, Personal Income, Sales trends, and Industrial Production are moving down,
which typically indicates recession probable.

This not a new call, but a continuing one by ECRI. We subscribe and its the focus of the letter.
Historically when these three items decline there is ~80% probably of recession following in ~ 6 months.
ECRI Call Call was first made in Sept 2011.

Will it affect the market? Maybe.

As of Friday close, R2K is lagging, diverging the general market on volume,
MACD, and has failed to reach its former high. Not much, but
QQQ and SPY are also lagging on volume. Major moves come on volume usually.

This rally may be on the belief that in an election year, QE must re-emerg. I agree,
I have moved to a flat position except for my usual silver hedge and a little gold.

Too many balls in the air for my money.

Best, Islander.