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Fed Stress Tests


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#1 Islander

Islander

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 02:43 PM

3:21 PM JPMorgan (JPM) announces its buyback and dividend increase in light of apparently receiving a passing grade from the Fed's stress test. "The Federal Reserve has informed the Firm that it completed its 2012 CCAR and that it did not object to the Firm's proposed capital distributions."

As per Seeking Alpha.

The banking bubble goes up again. JPM looks like the winner, but BAC , WFC and C are also expected to get permission to
throw their money to the shareholders, and bonus.

Hold on, they lighted the fuse.

Islander

Edited by Islander, 13 March 2012 - 02:44 PM.


#2 Jhoe

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 03:00 PM

3:21 PM JPMorgan (JPM) announces its buyback and dividend increase in light of apparently receiving a passing grade from the Fed's stress test. "The Federal Reserve has informed the Firm that it completed its 2012 CCAR and that it did not object to the Firm's proposed capital distributions."

As per Seeking Alpha.

The banking bubble goes up again. JPM looks like the winner, but BAC , WFC and C are also expected to get permission to
throw their money to the shareholders, and bonus.

Hold on, they lighted the fuse.

Islander


Sadly, I liquidated my JPM long position just below $41 about 7/8 days ago. I knew it could make this run towards $44, but it looked (still looks I guess) like a very classic 3-3-5 correction since hitting $27.80ish in early October. And I had this 5th wave terminating anywhere between $40.50 and $44. 3-3-5 corrections often take the more identifiable form of double tops or bottoms, and this one turned into a pretty clean double bottom at $28ish with a PT of $43/44 ignoring wave counts/fib termination levels.

Having said that, I think you can lay into JPM from the short side now above $43. I want to do so using close to the money put options in April or May, but I'm not going to get long any delta in JPM today with the implied vol no doubt through the roof on this breakout. I might miss a few % points in actual share price by not trading JPM short today, but with the SPX crossing 1400 and the vix looking ever more bottomless by the day, I don't think you're missing ANYTHING by not buying puts today, haha.

EDIT TO ADD: sorry, spx did not cross 1400, I was looking at the SPY right as the market was closing and I was typing, and it was above 140. Not sure why that ETF has been trading at a 4-5 pt premium to the cash SPX 500 and almost a 8-9 pt premium to the e-mini contract, but that reading threw me off. SPX closed around 1396

Edited by Jhoe, 13 March 2012 - 03:03 PM.