305 replies to this topic

[dharma]

i dont have answers bull markets end in vertical moves-its fact. check out past bulls, in fact take a look @aapl -whatever it is, everyone wants whatever it is @the top. we have not had that yet in gold. we are somewhere in the bull market. spet, dec, and march have all formed lows, making what appears to be an inverse h&s pattern on the chart. to validate the pattern, we have to close above the neckline, otherwise its a pretty picture. this week is the 15 week cycle low. the low was last week, which fits in w/the pattern. 1640 breaks into the next price cycle, we closed above that yesterday, i always like to see a couple of closes above that # to substantiate that idea. as traderama has pointed out heliocentric mercury is in sagg=bullish for 3-9 days the miners keep heading lower. the lows of dec 29th have held in gold which has made lower highs, silver has made higher highs=intermarket divergence. the picture is a bit murky to say the least here in the short term. breaking 1523 , which seemed to me @the time to be a significant cycle low, would indicate the bottom is not in and something else is in play. to top that off the broads have had a straight up move, w/the otc and ndx moving vertical. bonds appear toppy, but have looked that way for some time now. and we have an election year, w/the election cycle due to bottom in may and move straight up from there. i dont like to try and figure out what the fed is going to do in the short term, in the longer term, they will print. no matter what they say, they will print. but in the short term right here right now. will they delay some form of qe? i dont have the answer. its obvious that the broads and gold want qe. also for clarification of the short term, i would like to see a higher high in the gold market. the last 2 lower lows while painting an inverse h&s pattern, are somewhat disturbing as the miners keep seeking lower levels. as an investor it is all background noise. my positions are fully paid for. no margin. so i can and will wait. this is one of those times when the market has thrown off the weak hands. sentiment according to hulbert was unchanged @-15.7%. however sentiment can remain negative for weeks. but nonetheless, it is comforting to see folks giving up on the miners. i keep in mind from 75-76 gold went from 204-102 then 4 years later it went up 8.75x. its all part of the game dharma

[senorBS]

we are in an economic war. there are a few tools that are being used, global monetary easing and qe are the tools being fired. neither of these get rid of the debt. they do provide liquidity to the system and will help the economy to look better. it does not trim the sovereign debt .
have these moves occurred before.
before my trading days , from 75-76 gold went from 204-102 a50% haircut. i did not trade then, so i dont know exactly what the feel of the market was. but its not hard to imagine. from there gold went to 875 over the next 4 years. the miners started their run in 78-79 which is when i began gold went up 8.75x. and i saw many big name analysts-gold bugs. leave the train in the low 400s -too high , too fast. was the call, for a correction. it never came. they chased.
this is economic war. england , canada et al sold their gold @300 . so , its no surprise that the miners continue to decline. i wonder who is buying? might it be the same folks who bought 300 from the willing sovereigns? i dont get involved in the battles. i have no debt. no margin. fully paid for positions. i am mentally prepared to sit. i have decided this would be my strategy, not comfortable(keep in mind that i am a retired commodity trader-ie swing trader) but having seen the last 2years of the previous bull, i decided to have a large % core.
is this a comfortable position?
no , its not,. but based on what i had seen, i am thinking that it will be very profitable. we shall see
dharma

IMO this Europe mini "crash" in a few markets there and our dive simply increases odds of QE3 (here and there) and IMO gold is sniffing that out. The concern I have is if Gold needs another $150 washout or bottomed last week. GDX only down 40 cents today, not too bad, but how it ends today is what is importante.

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 10 April 2012 - 11:11 AM.

[tradermama]

Yes, I have had the world market index on a sell for a couple of weeks based on Dorsey's pnf..Ftse too..Watch the Vix.. it has a weekly Sars buy..first time since June 2011

http://www.zerohedge...mental-abortion

It could give us hints when we might see the Fed start talking up QE3..

TM

Edited by tradermama, 10 April 2012 - 11:18 AM.

[dougie]

seems ro me that those trendlines are more wishful thinking than anything real on gdx gdx chart is broken to this tired eye but a bounce is surely overdue if only to keep bullish hopes alive before the real smackdown everyone praying for more qe wont make it happen nor will falling equity markets necessarily which is happy to see interest rates fall does the system want obama or romney? does it matter?

Edited by dougie, 10 April 2012 - 11:32 AM.

[senorBS]

seems ro me that those trendlines are more wishful thinking than anything real on gdx
gdx chart is broken to this tired eye but a bounce is surely overdue if only to keep bullish hopes alive before the real smackdown
everyone praying for more qe wont make it happen nor will falling equity markets necessarily which is happy to see interest rates fall
does the system want obama or romney? does it matter?

Senor says watch for norte ignition here, Dow down 150 and HUI and GDX rallying bueno off lows and gold at new rally highs above 1650 - QE-TRES baby?
Muy interesting

PURE BS

Senor

[dougie]

i will be watching senor with a weary eye gdxj outperforming this am encouraging I will grant you but qe 3? wont happen soon

[dharma]

i will be watching senor
with a weary eye
gdxj outperforming this am encouraging I will grant you
but qe 3? wont happen soon

i have no idea when qe3 comes, but i do know lots of folks go broke betting one way or another on the fed. you can bet though @some point the incumbent leans on them. if the economy looks like this going into the election, he doesnt have a prayer of being elected. americans vote w/their wallets
dharma
it does look encouraging.
for me breaking above the neckline on the inverse h&s pattern will be quite bullish and the tell. that pattern took months to construct
sure looks pretty

[senorBS]

i will be watching senor
with a weary eye
gdxj outperforming this am encouraging I will grant you
but qe 3? wont happen soon

markets anticipate and don't trade on what is happening now, if QE3 is coming then IMO gold and gold stocks will rally grande time in advance of "the fact", it's way too early to know anything, just guessin here, who knows maybe we reverse and close lower, if so then a collapse is likely coming

Senor

[dougie]

a collapse is needed as cover for qe

[senorBS]

a collapse is needed as cover for qe

did you see some of the decline percentages in the European bourses today?

Senor