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Rut Roh


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#1 nimblebear

nimblebear

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Posted 04 April 2012 - 07:51 PM

The Rut broke support of a trendline from last falls' early October low. (remember 600's low ???) The decline before that, was rather steep. And of course bottomed at the last major injection of QE. So is this round of prop job over, and is the Fed going to sit and wait until the market starts again probing to the down-side ??? Will Benny wait for a 15% drop ? 20 % drop ? Or is he just going to sit on his hands, until the election's over , and let the market find its own way. Now don't me wrong. I really doubt that QE has been stopped. It continues to flow, but as each injection has less and less impact, obviously the next injection, and more public announcement has to be fairly significant. And don't forget that after the $16 trillion he lent to foreignors for free on TOP of the trillions he gave to our own domestic banks, he dished out another untold dose (probably around $ 3trillion) to the Euro banks so they could forestall and iron out some kinks in the Greece insolvency can kicking project. That probably trickled back here from Jan on, to keep our market propped more than it would have been. So hmmmn. Lets think about this.... what "crisis" can they use as an excuse to inject say $30 trillion into our markets here in late 2012 or 2013 when Benny thinks its time again ? + could it be Iran war, oil embargo, or the closing of Hormuz straights, Israel strike, ? or some combination thereof ? + could it be North Korea getting half cocked again, and going rogue ? + could it be the US banks finally being forced to admit their insolvency in connection to the Eurozone disaster, with Spain, and Portugal taking a whole bunch of these clowns down, by defaulting on bond payments ? + or will it be a currency related derivative blow up that nobody has quite connected the dots on ? I think we got a whole lot more QE coming, a mind boggling amount at some point, that few of us can even fathom, and maybe that leads to massive market swings. Upward, and downward. And then the dollar finally takes a dump, and goes below 70. And who (other than the FEd) is going to keep buying all that debt issuance, currently funding the 40% overspending that exceeds the tax receipts ? and then for anyone outside of the FEd to buy it they need tons of deflating dollars flushed to them (for free basically.) So maybe never mind the " Rut Roh." ;) Its just a pregnant pause. Or a spastic brief withdrawal symptom. And the market telling Benny not to stop the crack cocaine that is "QE."
OTIS.