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[Macro Speculator]

1) Chipotle puts are doing well...hoping for a dump into the $380s soon or so to take profits. I would recommend others take a look at this...momentum is fading, trendline is broken, stock sold after beating earnings....still time to short this at $415 or so. 2) When it comes to the next move in stock prices, I don't like how Treasuries are acting here at all. Reminds me of last summer when big pools of money kept pushing yields lower and lower while equity markets kept trying to get back to the 1370 high. I think a big move might be coming soon once again. I also don't like that market leaders (AAPL, the Chipotle/MCD type companies) are either stalling or selling off outright. I think either bond yields have to move up to confirm these equity prices or another big selloff is coming soon. Remember...big footprints in the bond markets...why are they fleeing into treasuries when yields are 1.9-1.95% and earnings have been "beating expectations" and everything else we're hearing? Don't forget that the S&P 500 was back near its 1370 high last summer and a few weeks later was at 1080. That is not a prediction for this time around...simply an observation that there is an awful lot of complacency that I see here and elsewhere that doesn't correspond with the way large money seems to be being allocated.

Edited by Macro Speculator, 30 April 2012 - 01:15 PM.