2 replies to this topic

[Macro Speculator]

Originally I had expected to see action around 1330 that would cause me to cover...but this move keeps grinding and grinding lower. Yesterday we saw the very first hints of accelerating selling...volume on the SPY was the highest of 2012. But still no washout, still no panic....still no rallies that don't fail within an hour or two. So I keep holding the short/put positions. Sometimes the toughest thing to do is to keep holding onto your position. I've moved stops down to 1318 cash to lock in profits there, but in the meantime I'll try to keep riding this down more and more till we see evidence of strength. This is quickly becoming my best trade of 2012, but I'd rather take slightly smaller profits at 1318 than cover here at 1297 when the downside could still be significant (we really are entering unknown territory right now...trendlines have broken without any panic selling...very very strange) We've fallen 120 points in the last couple of weeks and the VIX is still under 25! And people aren't even that bearish (in the US at least)...plus the media's barely noticed the falling market. It's tied up with Zuckerberg's wealth, the other facebook guy renouncing US citizenship, Romney and Obama's positions on gay marriage, etc. The panic is NOT there right now AT ALL. Maybe that will change soon but for the time being this is a very quiet move and very, very orderly. For those who are still short I would recommend to keep riding it down and keep adjusting your stops to lock in bigger and bigger profits. If this continues a bit longer it might be a sign we've finally resumed the great bear market. Good luck everyone...

[Islander]

Yes, it has resumed. FB day was not exactly auspicious. Can we say that up 8 cents on the opening price suggests something is wrong with FB, the market, or both?? Its not a crash of FB exactly; that comes a little later, but it comes.

Being just a little short over this weekend is only prudent. The G8 conference will come out of meetings and say that they were able to solve most of the world's problems, of course, the Greeks are not there and you will have to take their word for their other solutions. Get nervous anytime politican solve something, it will fly apart, a' la the EU.

Best, Islander

Edited by Islander, 18 May 2012 - 02:29 PM.

[sluzbenik1]

This is pretty much unprecedented. I have been scrolling back, and the most grindy thing I can find of a similar duration is in 2004 and that was only a 5% decline. This is over 8% now. A nice 13.7% decline gives us 1220, a 15% correction gives us 1205. Ouch!