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[nimblebear]

I've always said tongue-in-cheek to colleagues in a number of industries, that the concept of Just-in-Time relative to manufacturing, equals Just-to-Late. In too many instances the supply chain depends on too many factors to go just right, whether it be weather, traffic, shippers, suppliers down stream, etc. etc. Now Japan is experiencing the pain of their previous JIT empire, which is now beholden to the complete loss of all nuclear power Island wide, thanks of course to Fukishima. I've always felt this was inevitable for many reasons, but never really thought seriously (despite being in the energy business) that it would shortages that would be the death of JIT. But for Japan, clearly it is. The wisdom of having inventory beats the living crap out of MBA sponsored so called "smart" JIT. Japan may now also be Just-to-late from completely losing its manufacturing prowess completely, as supply chains are constantly being pushed to many parts around the world. As the U.S. retires its aging and smog creating coal fired plants, ultimately it faces similar issues. There seriously was no central planning for a replacement to the coal fleets, and it's simply HOPED that free market forces will fill the void. Of course our so called "free" market is completely short term oriented in thinking, so its the latest "fad" that takes on to fill the void. Natural gas powered combined cycle turbines are there to fill that void, but who says its good for the long term ? Sure gas is now cheap, and rather plentiful, but too the water consumption of these turbines is far far more troublesome than the consumption related to coal plants. The achieve the tremendous efficiencies of near 60% you need tons and tons of good ole H2O. Why because they operate at super high temps of plus 2700 F to get those efficiencies, and also use exotic alloys (another short sighted but long term problem). And guess what ? there isn't an unending supply of potable water, or even "grey" water that will work for these turbines. Principally, its considered "good", because GE has lobbied the crap out of congress, and all but eliminated any domestic competition for the turbines. Short term it means some extra jobs, but at what expense to the long term ? There are more solutions out there to provide this much power, but it takes strategic planning. Free markets, as we are learning now in spades, and did so in 2008, (aka Lehman and the banks) are atrocious at ANY sort of long term thinking or planning. Its all about the almighty buck. So its quite possible, we will be facing power shortages too, but for very different reasons than Japan. And ironically, one of the more viable long term solutions involves nuclear, but not the nukes like in Japan. I'm talking about thorium reactors which operate far more safely and have very very little nuclear waste. Still using a radioactive material, but its much more plentiful, 1000 times safer, and again addresses the problem of waster. JIT = JTL for most of the world, because its too short term oriented thinking, and its premise is flawed from the get go. And JIT will be our problem for its most of the way we look at all methods of distribution, including food, most services, and healthcare. Once again Japan is the example for what not to do, and yet most of the world is ignoring it.