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[dTraderB]

Can't have a crisis in EU, especially in Greece, this week since they are all busy with soccer games. Markets may exhale after the Greek election. MARK HULBERT thinks there is more room to rally. So do I. Financials and tech will continue to lead to way, first target SPX 1360. Failure to break above this will result in sharp decline. Mark Hulbert Archives June 15, 2012, 12:01 a.m. EDT Wall of worry remains quite strong Commentary: Average timer continues to bet market headed lowerStories You Might Like By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — The contrarian winds continue to blow in the direction of higher prices. To be sure, the veritable wall of worry isn’t quite as robust as it was 10 days ago, when I last devoted a column to a contrarian analysis of advisory sentiment. ( Read my Jun. 5 column, “Correction close to being over.” ) But it’s almost as strong as it was then, despite a rally that has added 550 points to the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/zigman/627449 DJIA +0.91% . The average short-term market timer continues to bet that the stock market will go lower — which is a bullish omen, from a contrarian point of view. Consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of short-term market timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI). It currently stands at minus 8.5%, which means that the average timer is allocated 8.5% of his portfolio to shorting the stock market. Ten days ago, in contrast, this average stood at minus 27.9%. Even more dramatic is sentiment among advisors who focus on the Nasdaq stock market, as measured by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index (HNNSI). This is the most sensitive barometer of any that I monitor, as it reflects sentiment among a group of retail-oriented advisers who are especially attuned to even slight changes in perceived trend. The HNNSI currently stands at minus 35.3%, which turns out to be the same as where it stood 10 days ago — and only slightly higher than the minus 47.1% level to which it fell on June 1. One fascinating perspective to take on these recent sentiment readings comes by comparing the HNNSI’s current level to where it stood in early February, when the Nasdaq Composite Index /quotes/zigman/123127 COMP +1.29% was trading at close to current levels. Since the normal pattern is for sentiment levels to rise and fall in lockstep with the market, we would normally expect the HNNSI today to be at more or less the same level as then. But it’s not — far from it. The HNNSI actually stood at 75% then. As I wrote soon thereafter, this level was “perilously close to dangerously high levels.” That the HNNSI is today 110 percentage points lower is testament to the subsurface work that has taken place since early February — work that should enable the market to move higher. Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

Edited by dTraderB, 17 June 2012 - 09:57 AM.