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Most likely scenario is a continuation


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#1 orange

orange

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 12:57 PM

I picked up longs today for new highs next week.

We've been consolidating for over 2 weeks in an uptrend. Many of the Indices are showing bullish price patterns and none have returned below their breakout levels from the first week of August. I believe the consolidation we are seeing now is nothing more than a pause at previous highs (INDU, RUT, SPX, NDX).

The sell off has been quite small, but I would rather be buying sell offs in a low volume uptrend than trying to short. This types of low volume consolidations are the worse types to be attempting a top catch. They typically rise painfully slow. I expect price to accelerate over the next few trading days with a breakout of the recent highs on the indices.

We did get some selling, enough that we could have already seen the low. We had lows with the VIX:TRIN in this area on previous up trends.

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The RUT is looking especially juicy and has been showing higher lows. It has formed an OK looking cup and handle.

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Consolidation zones intact.

http://stockcharts.c...ndleglance.html?[MARK]

Maybe I'm early, maybe I'm wrong, but now is a decent chance to go long for a continuation of the trend. Certainly better than shorting...

Edited by orange, 29 August 2012 - 12:58 PM.

"When your position is underwater, average down" - Professional Trader