14 replies to this topic

[Kimston]

Posted below are a few charts showing an apparent fractal pattern in the dollar. If it continues to track with the base fractal, the dollar may be getting close to starting an intermediate leg to the upside. The first chart is the longer term big picture. The other two charts are close-ups of the areas circled on the long-term chart. IF this pattern plays out, it would likely put downward pressure on the stocks and metals which correlates with analysis on those markets. Typical pattern analysis shows a H&S pattern forming for the last few months, which would normally imply a breakdown. However, the fractal implies it may not work out that way. We'll see I guess.

Kimston

[stubaby]

kimston: Thanks for the charts! and commentary! stubaby

[stubaby]

Kim:

Nice Charts! (I think you mean 1996 on your annotations).

• Must mean some kind or rationality will return similar to the Clinton-Gingrich reforms of Clinton's second term OR
• In this time of competitive devaluations more economic problems in Europe or japan make another run at the perceived safety of the US Dollar OR
• More likely a larger military conflict emerges.

For me a weaker dollar is preferred as I see no "Grand Bargain" in store with the present political configurations, which indicates either 2 or 3 from above - not pretty!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USD&p=M&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&i=p17259373313&a=183376211&r=419.png


stubaby

[Kimston]

Kim:

Nice Charts! (I think you mean 1996 on your annotations).

• Must mean some kind or rationality will return similar to the Clinton-Gingrich reforms of Clinton's second term OR
• In this time of competitive devaluations more economic problems in Europe or japan make another run at the perceived safety of the US Dollar OR
• More likely a larger military conflict emerges.

For me a weaker dollar is preferred as I see no "Grand Bargain" in store with the present political configurations, which indicates either 2 or 3 from above - not pretty!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USD&p=M&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&i=p17259373313&a=183376211&r=419.png


stubaby

Stubaby,
Yes, it should say 1996 on the annotations. Too many hours looking at too many charts I guess.

Thanks,

Kim

[Kimston]

Bought Jan 2014 UUP calls with DXH13 at 79.13. Stop 78.00 basis DXH. Kimston

[Kimston]

Bought Jan 2014 UUP calls with DXH13 at 79.13. Stop 78.00 basis DXH.

Kimston

It's really too early to talk about long-term upside projections (since an intermediate bottom hasn't really been confirmed yet), but I will do so anyway. If the dollar is marking an important low, my highest probability target over the next 3 to 4 years is 113 basis the nearby continuous DX futures contract. I find quite a confluence of geometric projections that all line up there. Of course one never knows anything for sure, but I think I would give it something like a 50-60% chance of finding its way there if an uptrend does in fact develop. I'm raising my stop to 78.50 basis the nearby futures in case the dollar has other plans.

Kimston

[SilentOne]

Kimston,

Could go either way, but the USD needs to make a clean break of the decade+ down trend line to signal some LT bullish.

http://sentienttrade...ng-term-cycles/

cheers,

john

[dharma]

interesting discussion. triangles are continuation patterns. so the trend the dollar was in prior to the triangle should continue. my sense is money is frantically going to be sloshing around seeking safety. =frankly . nothing would surprise me. the dollar gaining strength or the dollar crashing. the system is becoming more and more unstable. that is apparent to me great charts and discussion. dharma

[dharma]

triangles are continuation patterns.= the dollar was going down , then formed the triangle/pennant. so when the pattern completes it should head down. that being said, new highs for the move would surprise. new lows for the move would not surprise me. the system is becoming more and more ustable. money will be sloshing around seeking safety. in the 30s it was the mattress. nothing would surprise me @this point dharma great charts and great provocative conversation

[Kimston]

Posted below are a few charts I posted on a private site a few weeks ago. It looks like the dollar is still generally tracking the base fractal from the 1990's. However, the most recent correction was deeper (50% retrace) than the same point in the earlier pattern (38% retrace). Based on timing analysis, cycles are pointing up after May 9th (which appear to have bottomed a few days early) and especially after 5/20/13. IF the fractal continues to track, the dollar should begin a mult-week vertical rise out of the May low, which I assume is in but who knows.

Also posted is a dollar chart from 4/30 with my best guess at the Elliott Wave count, which aligns with the idea of a large up-move starting after current consolidation is done.

Kimston