19 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

FWIW

(Reuters)

11:55 BOJ to consider easing policy again in Jan - sources.

[dharma]

FWIW

(Reuters)

11:55 BOJ to consider easing policy again in Jan - sources.

fwiw, what i just read is the boj is taking its foreign exchange reserves to buy european bonds, thus pushing the yen down against the euro
dharma

[SemiBizz]

FWIW

(Reuters)

11:55 BOJ to consider easing policy again in Jan - sources.

fwiw, what i just read is the boj is taking its foreign exchange reserves to buy european bonds, thus pushing the yen down against the euro
dharma

Sure that's what they SAY, but that's not what they DO. The $YEN has the strongest volume at the HIGHS, while the EUR/YEN shows volume at the LOWS. Look at comparitive 200 hr charts, you will see it for yourself.

Very clear.

[dharma]

FWIW

(Reuters)

11:55 BOJ to consider easing policy again in Jan - sources.

fwiw, what i just read is the boj is taking its foreign exchange reserves to buy european bonds, thus pushing the yen down against the euro
dharma

Sure that's what they SAY, but that's not what they DO. The $YEN has the strongest volume at the HIGHS, while the EUR/YEN shows volume at the LOWS. Look at comparitive 200 hr charts, you will see it for yourself.

Very clear.

here is a long term chart of the yen http://www.graceland...2013jan9yen.png
(just had a deja vu)
dharma

[dougie]

targets of that H&s almost met

FWIW

(Reuters)

11:55 BOJ to consider easing policy again in Jan - sources.

fwiw, what i just read is the boj is taking its foreign exchange reserves to buy european bonds, thus pushing the yen down against the euro
dharma

Sure that's what they SAY, but that's not what they DO. The $YEN has the strongest volume at the HIGHS, while the EUR/YEN shows volume at the LOWS. Look at comparitive 200 hr charts, you will see it for yourself.

Very clear.

here is a long term chart of the yen http://www.graceland...2013jan9yen.png
(just had a deja vu)
dharma

[Russ]

Here's something juicy from Armstrong on War Cycles... "we are looking at 2014 for the beginning of a rise in separatism and civil unrest around the west. Then we see 2016 and the start of a nasty economic decline. We could see things get real bad during the 2016-2020 phase. That may actually be the bottom in the European economic meltdown. " He goes on to warn that Russia is the main threat that he sees, he think Putin still sees Russia as an Empire and would be all too happy to invade Europe, just as the Vandals sacked Rome just after the peak of the Roman Empire, once an economy is weakened enemies begin to smell blood.

[beta]

thoughts on the end-game:

gold-backed RMB--about which there has been much speculation by stephen leeb and others--will be the game-changer imho. China's present efforts to create RMB regional trading blocs (that circumvent USD-denominated trade) appear headed in this direction. in the coming currency war, the initial game will be to lower currencies to drive exports. but once USD index hits 60, the paramount objective will be to become the new global currency reserve to offset/replace the USD. having a (partly) gold-backed floating currency also confers a strategic advantage in global trade: (1) future growth depends less on export-driven GDP and more on domestic market consumption--the long-term goal of FDI-driven capex; (2) outbound acquisition of global assets (i.e., arable farmland, mines, factories, military technology and other productive capacity) will become the mode of economic dominance. goal is to become the new monetary hub of global finance and trade.

meanwhile, escalating tension between China-Japan over Diayou islands is bullish for gold and oil. two are largest creditors to US (T-note holders). Japan already under severe pressure due to weakening JGB market, in which they need to intervene much like US Fed to keep down rates. Japs have zero capacity going forward to be surplus buyers of US T-bills. China is US #1 external creditor. they will be pissed if/when US sides with Japan on Diayou (which US cannot afford politically not to do, without bowing to Chinese regional sovereignty). Fed already buys 70% of current issues, as Bill Gross emphasizes, and Treasury is up against debt ceiling. China's leverage > US is to drastically lower future purchases of T-bills. not in their interests to cause a panic sell-off, but they will gradually diversify into gold reserves for the inevitable decline in USD/T-bills ... yikes.

"those who have the gold ... make the rules"

Edited by beta, 12 January 2013 - 02:27 PM.

[beta]

... this is about SOVEREIGN DEBT CONTAGION, of which Europe was only Chapt 1, as Michael Pento explains well in his KWN interview here

Chapter 2 is unfolding in Japan. ECB and Japan sovereign crises will continue to prop up USD a while longer, thus keeping checks on both $gold and Treasury rates. next drama up is the Debt Ceiling, which is a far more serious (structural) problem than the fiscal cliff. in the case of Europe:

“the collapse of the European debt market was basically a conclusion made by their international creditors, that they not only lost faith in the debt of those governments but also in their currency. In other words, holders of European debt no longer believed they would be paid back on their loans in real terms. A default through inflation was now the most likely outcome."

I do not believe the same rate of erosion will happen in the case of US bond markets as quickly as Europe. Most US pension and institutional funds are heavily invested in US Treasuries, and it will take a while for that generational mindset to turn course (many older Americans are adverse to the barbarous relic, having watched it fall from 850 to 250 over 20 years). however, even a small% divestiture of institutional funds rotating out of Treasuries into PMs would significantly impact price, given how small and illiquid the PM market is in comparison.

Edited by beta, 12 January 2013 - 06:39 PM.

[dougie]

this is a keeper of a post

thoughts on the end-game:

gold-backed RMB--about which there has been much speculation by stephen leeb and others--will be the game-changer imho. China's present efforts to create RMB regional trading blocs (that circumvent USD-denominated trade) appear headed in this direction. in the coming currency war, the initial game will be to lower currencies to drive exports. but once USD index hits 60, the paramount objective will be to become the new global currency reserve to offset/replace the USD. having a (partly) gold-backed floating currency also confers a strategic advantage in global trade: (1) future growth depends less on export-driven GDP and more on domestic market consumption--the long-term goal of FDI-driven capex; (2) outbound acquisition of global assets (i.e., arable farmland, mines, factories, military technology and other productive capacity) will become the mode of economic dominance. goal is to become the new monetary hub of global finance and trade.

meanwhile, escalating tension between China-Japan over Diayou islands is bullish for gold and oil. two are largest creditors to US (T-note holders). Japan already under severe pressure due to weakening JGB market, in which they need to intervene much like US Fed to keep down rates. Japs have zero capacity going forward to be surplus buyers of US T-bills. China is US #1 external creditor. they will be pissed if/when US sides with Japan on Diayou (which US cannot afford politically not to do, without bowing to Chinese regional sovereignty). Fed already buys 70% of current issues, as Bill Gross emphasizes, and Treasury is up against debt ceiling. China's leverage > US is to drastically lower future purchases of T-bills. not in their interests to cause a panic sell-off, but they will gradually diversify into gold reserves for the inevitable decline in USD/T-bills ... yikes.

"those who have the gold ... make the rules"

[beta]

thanks dougie -- amazing the fiscal tragedy that has unfolded before our eyes in the past 10 years, even though many warned about these outcomes YEARS AGO ---Sinclair, Grant, Puplava, Faber, Rogers, to name a few.

What the US needs is a good debt restructuring workout. Instead of Jack Lew, O should appoint a good bankruptcy lawyer to head up Treasury.

Every American should read this transcript and weep: We Are Not A Nation of Deadbeats

Level of delusionment is unreal. Like watching a former rockstar become 80 lbs obese.

Edited by beta, 14 January 2013 - 05:52 PM.