70 replies to this topic

[RagingSpartan]

i am thinking we get some kind of W bottom pattern
the sentiment is so bearish
http://kingworldnews..._Right_Now.html
yet, the physical market in china is much higher than the actual price
http://kingworldnews...ew_Maguire.html

dharma

What would you need to see to change your mind that Gold topped in 2011 and is now in a bear market?

I have stated that I believe gold is overvalued against all other assets. I'm in the bear camp.

no point in debating in the fullness of time we will find out!
all i will say is in my lifetime of trading, 33years, i have never seen a bull market end any other way than a parabolic blow off. yes, the 11 high can be said to be a parabolic, but i dont see it that way. even stodgy real estate had a parabolic blow off in around 05. the fundamentals support higher gold prices. again , in the fullness of time we find out!
dharma
nem making daily divergences

I understand your point regarding the parabolic phase. I'm a value guy so I look at things a little differently. You might be right and as you said time will tell. Let's say i'm right though and gold has topped. Since you are in the bull camp, at what point would you change your mind? What price action would you need to see to confirm the bull market is over? I'm in the bear camp. For me to abandon my bearish case I would need to see other asset classes catch up with the price of gold.

[dharma]

i think i know where you are heading w/this , i am not going to play along. i think we are in a wave 4 here. wave 4s are lengthy, this one is 1 1/2 years long, it serves to change the psychology of the market from bullish to bearish. check! i had an argument w/paul van eeden , he had a model for valuing gold, which i dont believe is valuable. if you look @ the feds debt or taking on of debt to come up w/a gold value, it is indicating a much higher price. the feds taking on debt has broken out of a big base, which will indicate higher gold prices. my work continues to show cross currents. i have next week as a positive week . the broads will correct @some point, but it will not be the top. it will be a top, which will be taken out down the road. the cross currents continue through out the month. i stopped buying physical in the low 500s , although i did add a little near the 08 lows and in the 1530s . i understand all the bearishness, it is what is supposed to happen. never mind the growing debt world wide. never mind all the printing taking place. it is not what the market is focusing on. the bears will continue to growl . i will look like i have made a mistake in judgement for a little while longer. @ the top when it comes, it will look like blue skies forever, and all those who use technical indicators, will be very bullish, and they will ride it down. same as last time. i will be out the door. sipping fresh cocoanuts, vanished from sight dharma

[rooster]

i think i know where you are heading w/this , i am not going to play along.
i think we are in a wave 4 here. wave 4s are lengthy, this one is 1 1/2 years long, it serves to change the psychology of the market from bullish to bearish. check!
i had an argument w/paul van eeden , he had a model for valuing gold, which i dont believe is valuable. if you look @ the feds debt or taking on of debt to come up w/a gold value, it is indicating a much higher price. the feds taking on debt has broken out of a big base, which will indicate higher gold prices. my work continues to show cross currents. i have next week as a positive week . the broads will correct @some point, but it will not be the top. it will be a top, which will be taken out down the road. the cross currents continue through out the month. i stopped buying physical in the low 500s , although i did add a little near the 08 lows and in the 1530s . i understand all the bearishness, it is what is supposed to happen. never mind the growing debt world wide. never mind all the printing taking place. it is not what the market is focusing on. the bears will continue to growl . i will look like i have made a mistake in judgement for a little while longer. @ the top when it comes, it will look like blue skies forever, and all those who use technical indicators, will be very bullish, and they will ride it down. same as last time. i will be out the door. sipping fresh cocoanuts, vanished from sight
dharma

Dharma, I do hope you'll continue to post while we are aproaching the top. I've not sat through a bull parabolic, so I'm hoping you'll keep walking us through the topping process as you've done with this bottoming.

Thanks

[RagingSpartan]

i think i know where you are heading w/this , i am not going to play along.
i think we are in a wave 4 here. wave 4s are lengthy, this one is 1 1/2 years long, it serves to change the psychology of the market from bullish to bearish. check!
i had an argument w/paul van eeden , he had a model for valuing gold, which i dont believe is valuable. if you look @ the feds debt or taking on of debt to come up w/a gold value, it is indicating a much higher price. the feds taking on debt has broken out of a big base, which will indicate higher gold prices. my work continues to show cross currents. i have next week as a positive week . the broads will correct @some point, but it will not be the top. it will be a top, which will be taken out down the road. the cross currents continue through out the month. i stopped buying physical in the low 500s , although i did add a little near the 08 lows and in the 1530s . i understand all the bearishness, it is what is supposed to happen. never mind the growing debt world wide. never mind all the printing taking place. it is not what the market is focusing on. the bears will continue to growl . i will look like i have made a mistake in judgement for a little while longer. @ the top when it comes, it will look like blue skies forever, and all those who use technical indicators, will be very bullish, and they will ride it down. same as last time. i will be out the door. sipping fresh cocoanuts, vanished from sight
dharma

dharma. as i stated before, i am a value guy. when i look at the price of gold against real estate, stocks, income levels and even other commodities i see gold as being overvalued at these levels. i constantly here talk about gold going to 3k, 5k and so on. gold does not exist in a vaccum. for gold to head higher, imho, you would need to see income levels, RE and even other commodities like ags go up by 50%. i don't see that in the cards anytime soon. if those conditions were met thought then i would change my tune on gold and turn bullish but until that happens i am in the bear camp. right now at current income levels i believe gold is about 25%-30% overvalued.

[dharma]

rooster-thanks for the vote of confidence BUT it is harrowing being in a parabolic. i have no plans during that time. market vane recorded its lowest #of bulls 49% i am doing a little buying. dharma

[DrSP]

Dharma, I do hope you'll continue to post while we are aproaching the top. I've not sat through a bull parabolic, so I'm hoping you'll keep walking us through the topping process as you've done with this bottoming.

Thanks

You build your own bottoms and then tops and ask for support. Classic.

[dharma]

my work shows : the dollar is overbought and diverging. xau/hui/gdx/gdxj all oversold w/divergences. june gold oversold and diverging. silver oversold and diverging. yesterday and today are the astro turns. ok dharma are the lows in? that is a tough call, my work shows the possibility for 5 weeks, including this week, for cross currents and the longer cycles exerting downward pressure on the metals. sure this could be the lows, we will only know in retrospect. all the previous lows, had the same ear marks, sentiment was @an extreme, market was oversold. this could have very well been the 34 and 17month cycle lows. imo, this bull has alot more ground to cover on the upside. varying opinions are what makes a market dharma

[RagingSpartan]

my work shows : the dollar is overbought and diverging. xau/hui/gdx/gdxj all oversold w/divergences. june gold oversold and diverging. silver oversold and diverging.
yesterday and today are the astro turns.
ok dharma are the lows in?
that is a tough call, my work shows the possibility for 5 weeks, including this week, for cross currents and the longer cycles exerting downward pressure on the metals. sure this could be the lows, we will only know in retrospect. all the previous lows, had the same ear marks, sentiment was @an extreme, market was oversold. this could have very well been the 34 and 17month cycle lows.
imo, this bull has alot more ground to cover on the upside. varying opinions are what makes a market
dharma

dharma. 12 years of gains in gold. 12 years of sideways action in equities. what we've been seeing for a year now is a rotation out of metals into equities.

[dougie]

the entire metals market might rotate into equities and one wouldnt notice it

[dharma]

the entire metals market might rotate into equities and one wouldnt notice it

right you are , the gold market is miniscule.
this may take more time to establish a firm bottom
many gold bugs will not be able to come back. they have been decimated
dharma