18 replies to this topic

[DrSP]

I posted this chart on Dec. 27th.



As recently as 10 days back, one of the technicians at stockcharts.com posted a blog based on the same chart. His chart included RSI as well, see below.


I would like to make 2 points here:

1, I have read many a posts about the similarities between 2008 bottom and 2013 bottom (??) in Gold. While the daily, weekly charts look similar, the monthly charts is where the real deals is. The RSI formed lower highs on its peaks. I only used MACD and then reading RSI but there are many indicators that are rolling over. Money flow doesn't lie!

2, 2nd major argument I read these days is the sentiment is overly bearish among gold bugs. Really? So, did everyone sell Gold and is waiting in cash looking for a bottom? I beg your pardon right here. WHile the namesake argument may be bearish, nobody sold their Gold. Everybody is still holding, waiting and looking for higher prices. Does the contrarian theory against the "internet bearish sentiment" hold good? I don't think so. Moreover, if the charts are actually looking like a bear, it truely means that it is a bear. You cannot call a tiger something else just because everyone calls it a tiger. It is a tiger, so you must call it a tiger as well.

Edited by DrSP, 14 March 2013 - 11:40 AM.

[dougie]

meanwhile, i seem to recall you saying you were long gold as well

I posted this chart on Dec. 27th.



As recently as 10 days back, one of the technicians at stockcharts.com posted a blog based on the same chart. His chart included RSI as well, see below.


I would like to make 2 points here:

1, I have read many a posts about the similarities between 2008 bottom and 2013 bottom (??) in Gold. While the daily, weekly charts look similar, the monthly charts is where the real deals is. The RSI formed lower highs on its peaks. I only used MACD and then reading RSI but there are many indicators that are rolling over. Money flow doesn't lie!

2, 2nd major argument I read these days is the sentiment is overly bearish among gold bugs. Really? So, did everyone sell Gold and is waiting in cash looking for a bottom? I beg your pardon right here. WHile the namesake argument may be bearish, nobody sold their Gold. Everybody is still holding, waiting and looking for higher prices. Does the contrarian theory against the "internet bearish sentiment" hold good? I don't think so. Moreover, if the charts are actually looking like a bear, it truely means that it is a bear. You cannot call a tiger something else just because everyone calls it a tiger. It is a tiger, so you must call it a tiger as well.

[DrSP]

meanwhile, i seem to recall you saying you were long gold as well

Everybody in this world owns Gold, can you say no to that? But the motives of owning Gold are different for everyone. Mine is to sell in cascades based on levels broken downward. My selling can go all the way to 900$ where I would not own a single ounce. I guess you got my thought process. In simple words, I am waiting for the metal to confirm the bear, so that I can slowly return to cash. Net net I don't lose even if the pig goes ponzi or parabola.

[tria]

DrSP, I just can't find it now where I read it but a lot of GLD has been sold and the tonnage they hold now is at a multi-year low. -tria

[DrSP]

DrSP, I just can't find it now where I read it but a lot of GLD has been sold and the tonnage they hold now is at a multi-year low.

-tria

You might have read it, I don't doubt it. But, internet is filled with ponzis who use vague terms like "a lot", "they" "multiyear" to pressure the real investors. Classic example that I responded to is a newsletter posted by Kimston recently, where the guru fills the newsletter with garbage without price mention of a single asset.

[tria]

DrSP, I just can't find it now where I read it but a lot of GLD has been sold and the tonnage they hold now is at a multi-year low.

-tria

You might have read it, I don't doubt it. But, internet is filled with ponzis who use vague terms like "a lot", "they" "multiyear" to pressure the real investors. Classic example that I responded to is a newsletter posted by Kimston recently, where the guru fills the newsletter with garbage without price mention of a single asset.

Googled and got it from another source.

http://www.etftrends...llion-holdings/

-tria

[DrSP]

DrSP, I just can't find it now where I read it but a lot of GLD has been sold and the tonnage they hold now is at a multi-year low.

-tria

You might have read it, I don't doubt it. But, internet is filled with ponzis who use vague terms like "a lot", "they" "multiyear" to pressure the real investors. Classic example that I responded to is a newsletter posted by Kimston recently, where the guru fills the newsletter with garbage without price mention of a single asset.

Googled and got it from another source.

http://www.etftrends...llion-holdings/

-tria

1, Does Gold ETF outflows not mean lower Gold prices? Why is Gold still higher?

2, When GLD inflows begin, for every share of GLD, they must hold the physical at a safe location, it is said. But, when outflows begin, what happens to that stored Gold? It still stays with the same company which distributes GLD, right? So, then what difference does ETF inflow/ outflow make for bullion? Nothing. Regardless of inflow or outflow, the Gold stays right there. I guess you understand the relationship.

Conclusion is this ETF inflow/ outflow theory affecting prices is trash.

[senorBS]

here's this old amigos take, do an overlay of monthly gold vs copper and the CRC commod index, they follow each other big picture beautifully, in the grande bull there have been TWO grande drives higher from 1999-2001, IMO the next grande drive will begin soon and has already begun in the CRC, I am muy confident the CRB is goin to new all-time highs and I would not bet against gold doing the same. just an old hombres BS opinion Senor

Edited by senorBS, 14 March 2013 - 06:00 PM.

[tria]

DrSP, I just can't find it now where I read it but a lot of GLD has been sold and the tonnage they hold now is at a multi-year low.

-tria

You might have read it, I don't doubt it. But, internet is filled with ponzis who use vague terms like "a lot", "they" "multiyear" to pressure the real investors. Classic example that I responded to is a newsletter posted by Kimston recently, where the guru fills the newsletter with garbage without price mention of a single asset.

Googled and got it from another source.

http://www.etftrends...llion-holdings/

-tria

1, Does Gold ETF outflows not mean lower Gold prices? Why is Gold still higher?

2, When GLD inflows begin, for every share of GLD, they must hold the physical at a safe location, it is said. But, when outflows begin, what happens to that stored Gold? It still stays with the same company which distributes GLD, right? So, then what difference does ETF inflow/ outflow make for bullion? Nothing. Regardless of inflow or outflow, the Gold stays right there. I guess you understand the relationship.



Conclusion is this ETF inflow/ outflow theory affecting prices is trash.

1, Gold is LOWER than it was in January and not higher.

2, When GLD shares are sold they have to sell physical bullion I believe, like all ETFs they
buy/sell shares of the relevant sectors they are tracking
They are not in the business of being net long or short physical bullion as an ETF.
If their proprietary trading desk wishes to speculate being long/short, that is another matter.

3, You can get .GLDTONS:IND quotes with the Bloomberg Professional Service.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/!GLDTONS:IND

Conclusion is that the inflow/outflow factor has a lot to do with price action.
Finally, let the price do the talking and we do the trading, each one of us using the tools that serve/help him best.

-tria

[DrSP]

1, Gold is LOWER than it was in January and not higher.

When you are talking about inflows/ outflows, you are talking "multi-year" and when you are talking about price, you are comparing to past 2 months. Gold has barely budged in price. Do you understand?

2, When GLD shares are sold they have to sell physical bullion I believe,

"sell physical bullion" to whom? Doesn't it mean someone else is buying? If someone is buying, then what is the problem of "nobody buying Gold" here?

Conclusion is that the inflow/outflow factor has a lot to do with price action.
Finally, let the price do the talking and we do the trading, each one of us using the tools that serve/help him best.

-tria

You "concluded" but like I demonstrated again, it is an invalid argument.