This week's stats:
S&P500 gained 1.2% (up 14.6% y-t-d)
Dow added 1.0% (up 15.4%)
Nasdaq100 gained 1.2% (up 12.0%)
S&P 400 MidCaps advanced 2.1% (up 16.6%)
Russell 2000 rose 2.2% (up 14.8%)
Morgan Stanley Consumer index increased 0.4% (up 21.0%)
Banks jumped 2.8% (up 14.1%)
Broker/Dealers surged 3.0% (up 26.9%)
Morgan Stanley Cyclicals rose 3.5% (up 15.9%)
Transports gained 2.5% (up 20.1%)
Morgan Stanley High Tech index jumped 1.9% (up 10.3%)
Semiconductors surged 3.3% (up 21.3%)
InteractiveWeek Internet index gained 2.2% (up 15.4%)
Biotechs jumped 2.5% (up 29.2%).
DAX equities index jumped 1.9% for the week (up 8.8% y-t-d)
Japan's Nikkei surged 6.7% (up 40.5%)
Federal Reserve Credit jumped $10.4 billion to a record $3.3 trillion.
Fed Credit expanded $491 billion over the past 31 weeks.
Over the past year, Fed Credit expanded $431 billion, or 15.2%.
Global central bank "international reserve assets" were up $629 billion y-o-y, or 6.0%, to a record $11.1 trillion.
Over two years, reserves were $1.3 trillion higher, for 13% growth.
M2 (narrow) "money" supply jumped $33.6 billion to a record $10.5 trillion.
And this weekend's update from Art Hill at Stockcharts:
RISING PRICE CHANNEL SHOWS ROOM TO RUN FOR THE DOW -- MACD-HISTOGRAM EXTENDS POSITIVE STREAK FOR S&P 500 -- BREADTH CONFIRMS UNDERLYING STRENGTH IN BROADER MARKET -- SMALLER SPX STOCKS LAG, BUT EQUAL-WEIGH INDEX HITS NEW HIGH
By Arthur Hill
RISING PRICE CHANNEL SHOWS ROOM TO RUN FOR THE DOW... Link for today's video. Stocks have been on a tear since mid November and show now signs of reversing course. We can argue about overbought conditions, the employment participation rate and the Fed affect, but there is simply no debate on trend direction (up). Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials within a rising channel since September 2011. By my count, there have been three pullbacks within this uptrend (November 2011, April-May 2012 and October-November 2012. The current advance is in its 25th week and the Dow is up almost 20% over this period. Even though the advance looks overextended, a trend in motion stays in motion and the Dow could run another 1000 points. This project is based on a rising channel extension. Using a little indicator trick, I added a blank upper window and extended the chart 15 weeks to show these channel extensions. Chart 2 shows the settings used in the "Chart Attributes" and "Indicators" sections. Basically, I added "Price" as an indicator and used a fictitious symbol to create a blank window. The lower trend line extends from the September 2011 closing low and extends to the November 2012 closing low. The upper trend line is parallel and extends from the March 2012 closing high. The upper trend line extends to the low 16000 area in July-August. The February consolidation and lower trend line mark support in the 14000 area.
MACD-HISTOGRAM EXTENDS POSITIVE STREAK FOR S&P 500 ... Chart 3 shows the S&P 500 within a larger rising channel since June 2010 (blue trend lines). The index moved above the upper channel trend line this month, but shows no signs of slowing down. The pink trend lines mark a steeper, and smaller, channel extending up from the August 2011 low. This lower trend line appears to be the "line of best fit". The upper trend line is parallel and extends from the April 2012 high. This channel shows further room to run. The indicator window shows the MACD-Histogram turning positive at the beginning of 2013 and remaining positive the last 17 weeks. Notice that the MACD-Histogram was positive for 26 weeks from September 2010 and for 27 weeks from October 2011. The last two run show just how long this indicator can remain positive. Momentum is clearly bullish as long as this indicator remains in positive territory.
BREADTH CONFIRMS UNDERLYING STRENGTH IN BROADER MARKET... The AD Line, AD Volume Line and High-Low Line for the S&P 1500 confirmed the new highs in the S&P 500 and S&P 1500 ($SPSUPX). The S&P 1500 is a broad index that consists of the S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600 and S&P MidCap 400. It is a good index to use for breadth indicators and to assess the broader stock market. Chart 4 shows the S&P 1500 AD Line ($SUPADP) surging to a fresh 52-week high this week. Chart 5 shows the S&P 1500 AD Volume Line ($SUPUDP) also hitting a 52-week high. The April lows mark key support for both lines. A top in the market looks unlikely right now because both confirmed the new highs in the underlying index. Chart 6 shows the S&P 1500 High-Low Line ($SUPHLP) moving above its 10-day EMA in late November and rising ever since this bullish cross. There is no sign of weakness here either.
(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 4
(click to view a live version of this chart)
The buy setups for this week
First big volume day up off the lows.
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Edited by PrintFaster, 11 May 2013 - 10:20 AM.
