19 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

Yep, if you really want to confuse yourself Use that Volume by price stuff, tell me how it works out. I am all ears.... I am very spoiled, the way I use volume allows me to call out very specific prices... Defined test parameters. Volume by price is spongy and nonspecific. Useless when you know now to use volume properly...

[diogenes227]

Yep, if you really want to confuse yourself

Use that Volume by price stuff, tell me how it works out.

I am all ears....

I am very spoiled, the way I use volume allows me to call out very specific prices...

Defined test parameters.

Volume by price is spongy and nonspecific.

Useless when you know now to use volume properly...

Semi,

I'm not going to do anything with volume by price. Just having fun taking a look at this and that or how AAPL ran out of volume at the top and so on. I really admire what you do and how precise you are in most instances I've observed and truly appreciate all your posts, but I like a simple repeating swing and that for me is the McClellan breadth. (By the way, the bears did not drop the ball, the bulls' free safety's name was "NYMO").

And fib, once again thanks.

Edited by diogenes227, 07 June 2013 - 12:50 PM.

[SemiBizz]

No, indeed the bears did drop the ball... diagnosed after the close on Tuesday...


Wednesday's SPX Forecast:

SPX gave up all of Tuesday's early gains and closed just about where it ended on Friday at 1631. It was a pullback on lighter volume that failed to test the previous low, however it's noted that the DJIA did get under on lighter volume in this test of Friday's low at SPX 1630. We have a bullish spring bounce off today's low of 1623.62, wasn't strong enough to test the previous 1622.72 low, and bounced. That bounce probably entitles the SPX to another run at 1640-1646...

We'll see what happens and anything can, because we have the employment report on Friday... While it all looks bearish now, the volume lightened up today and we could have just seen a setup to get the proper risk/reward for a trade long into that report...

[diogenes227]

No, indeed the bears did drop the ball... diagnosed after the close on Tuesday...


Wednesday's SPX Forecast:

SPX gave up all of Tuesday's early gains and closed just about where it ended on Friday at 1631. It was a pullback on lighter volume that failed to test the previous low, however it's noted that the DJIA did get under on lighter volume in this test of Friday's low at SPX 1630. We have a bullish spring bounce off today's low of 1623.62, wasn't strong enough to test the previous 1622.72 low, and bounced. That bounce probably entitles the SPX to another run at 1640-1646...

We'll see what happens and anything can, because we have the employment report on Friday... While it all looks bearish now, the volume lightened up today and we could have just seen a setup to get the proper risk/reward for a trade long into that report...

Nice done as usual.

But here's my intercept from Wednesday (recall it was a hard down day):

So what now? Or as they say, are we there yet? Appears the bears have one option -- crash the market. Otherwise...that reading on the NYMO is likely to snap back any day, actually any second, and my nifty-fifty have once again entered "Bounce Land" as well. So there is a bounce a'comin'! Could take a day -- bears covering tomorrow in fear of Friday? Or two -- Friday's employment report itself? But, barring an outright crash, I suspect down-side time is running short, so to speak.

We appear to have been on the same page regardless of how we took possession.

[SemiBizz]

No, indeed the bears did drop the ball... diagnosed after the close on Tuesday...


Wednesday's SPX Forecast:

SPX gave up all of Tuesday's early gains and closed just about where it ended on Friday at 1631. It was a pullback on lighter volume that failed to test the previous low, however it's noted that the DJIA did get under on lighter volume in this test of Friday's low at SPX 1630. We have a bullish spring bounce off today's low of 1623.62, wasn't strong enough to test the previous 1622.72 low, and bounced. That bounce probably entitles the SPX to another run at 1640-1646...

We'll see what happens and anything can, because we have the employment report on Friday... While it all looks bearish now, the volume lightened up today and we could have just seen a setup to get the proper risk/reward for a trade long into that report...

Nice done as usual.

But here's my intercept from Wednesday (recall it was a hard down day):

So what now? Or as they say, are we there yet? Appears the bears have one option -- crash the market. Otherwise...that reading on the NYMO is likely to snap back any day, actually any second, and my nifty-fifty have once again entered "Bounce Land" as well. So there is a bounce a'comin'! Could take a day -- bears covering tomorrow in fear of Friday? Or two -- Friday's employment report itself? But, barring an outright crash, I suspect down-side time is running short, so to speak.

We appear to have been on the same page regardless of how we took possession.

As for Wednesday, I left this part out, but the final results were consistent with what I previously quoted:
(Tuesday)

Now once again we had that high volume doji, this time in the final hour, so that's another bit of a mystery.. we never trust a high volume doji, if there was high volume and it finishes unchanged like that, we are always cautious because it "appears" that sellers and buyers were balanced, but quite often that is the mark of a skillful trader/operator(s). 1622 is still the key support level and a possible cascade lower to the 1580s.

[Geomean]

It's amazing to me how Volume is a great tool if you really understand how to use it..

I see all kinds of analysis using volume that is my opinion FLAWED.

Up Volume/Down Volume, Volume by Price.

All meaningless.

The predictive powers of a coin flip.

Semi,

Would you ID the publicly available volume analysis tools you find most helpful and perhaps a reference, or book(s) that discusses those tools? Are there any available in Trade Station? The books on/by Wyckoff are numerous (122 at Amazon), so a few "top picks" would be helpful.

I've had a nodding familiarity with Wyckoff's work as a skilled Wyckoff practitioner was on Ike's show for years, but have never studied it in depth.

So far I've found only a couple to volume tools that I can understand and, as equally important, reliably and efficiently apply. They have been most helpful.

Thx in advance

Geo

[SemiBizz]

It's amazing to me how Volume is a great tool if you really understand how to use it..

I see all kinds of analysis using volume that is my opinion FLAWED.

Up Volume/Down Volume, Volume by Price.

All meaningless.

The predictive powers of a coin flip.

Semi,

Would you ID the publicly available volume analysis tools you find most helpful and perhaps a reference, or book(s) that discusses those tools? Are there any available in Trade Station? The books on/by Wyckoff are numerous (122 at Amazon), so a few "top picks" would be helpful.

I've had a nodding familiarity with Wyckoff's work as a skilled Wyckoff practitioner was on Ike's show for years, but have never studied it in depth.

So far I've found only a couple to volume tools that I can understand and, as equally important, reliably and efficiently apply. They have been most helpful.

Thx in advance

Geo

I do all my work the old fashioned way with manual inspection. I do have a very good memory so that really helps. For further education on this I recommend Hank Pruden

http://www.hankpruden.com/

[Geomean]

It's amazing to me how Volume is a great tool if you really understand how to use it..

I see all kinds of analysis using volume that is my opinion FLAWED.

Up Volume/Down Volume, Volume by Price.

All meaningless.

The predictive powers of a coin flip.

Semi,

Would you ID the publicly available volume analysis tools you find most helpful and perhaps a reference, or book(s) that discusses those tools? Are there any available in Trade Station? The books on/by Wyckoff are numerous (122 at Amazon), so a few "top picks" would be helpful.

I've had a nodding familiarity with Wyckoff's work as a skilled Wyckoff practitioner was on Ike's show for years, but have never studied it in depth.

So far I've found only a couple to volume tools that I can understand and, as equally important, reliably and efficiently apply. They have been most helpful.

Thx in advance

Geo

I do all my work the old fashioned way with manual inspection. I do have a very good memory so that really helps. For further education on this I recommend Hank Pruden

http://www.hankpruden.com/

Thx, I ordered his book.

[SemiBizz]

I've been practicing this methodology for a lot of years now, and I have expanded on what I learned from my studies and have moved well beyond my "book learnings". One of these days I may write my own book, but for now I'm satisfied just to trade and share my insights on my website with my group. It's a very powerful methodology, I know you will enjoy your studies.

[SemiBizz]

The last paragraph of my forecast for Monday more or less summarizes this week and gives you an idea of the power of volume-based price targeting... I knew the decline was in trouble on Tuesday, I reported it here in fact...

It's easy to get BEARED UP here, However

by Thursday, there was little doubt about the outcome for the NFP on Friday...

Bears dropped the Ball

Summary from Monday's (6/10)Forecast:

OK so I was not very surprised by the action this week and just when most people were "beared up" I could visualize what the operators had in mind for Friday. When the volume dropped off on Tuesday, the hair was standing up on my neck, and then when we failed to test the reference candle lows on stronger volume on Wednesday, that was the clincher. As I said earlier, bull markets do not just "fade away", they must be BROKEN, we didn't see that this week. We did see some weakness though, and this bull market is very long in the tooth... let's just trade this and not worry about WHEN it breaks. I will do my best to keep you on top of it and keep you out of the potential whipsaws. As you can see, the methodology we use here is different from just about every other type of technical analysis out there, and it is DEADLY ACCURATE, right down to the PRICE - not just UP or DOWN.

Good Luck in your studies...

Edited by SemiBizz, 08 June 2013 - 11:37 AM.