19 replies to this topic

[Russ]

@011 was a throw over last gasp bull and now we are in a wave 3 of the decline??

The devil is in the details, if you look at this chart you will notice the initial rally off of the 1999-2000
consolidation produced a trend-line which is the top line on the wedge, the line under that is where the 2011 peak came to, so that shows that the 2011 peak was not as energetic as the initial break-out, the 2016 peak will most likely meet or exceed that top line, in theory.

Edited by Russ, 25 June 2013 - 09:39 PM.

[SemiBizz]

Round numbers won't save the gold bugs... Going under $1000, well under. This doesn't end until they all give up on it. Seen this before, things don't change. It' ain't different this time...

[Russ]

Things are quite different this time, governments are starting to crumble from their debts, what started in Greece is just the first domino which will eventually bring down all the socialist countries, including the ones that pretend they are not socialist.

Gold may go a little under a thousand, it could even touch 1980's high of about 850 as Armstrong has suggested but will eventually go through the roof as confidence in government is lost.

For XAU to get down to your 56 number Gold will have to go down to the 2001 levels of the 400 area, that is not going to happen. The Dow Gold ratio got nowhere near the 1980 level either, which adjusted for inflation would have to take Gold to about 2500 dollars.

Are you disagreeing that it will form a high in 2016?

Round numbers won't save the gold bugs...

Going under $1000, well under.

This doesn't end until they all give up on it.

Seen this before, things don't change.

It' ain't different this time...

Edited by Russ, 26 June 2013 - 12:17 AM.

[SemiBizz]

We not talking about highs here, the next event is the low. I remember very well the gold rush of the late 70s. We had real inflation then, it was demand-pull inflation. You waited months to get the car you wanted because of scarce supply. And you paid OVER STICKER to get it. In order to have inflation, you have to get the money in the hands of the consumer... Not into the hands of a bunch of day-trading bankers... This rally in gold is fundamentally flawed, and that's why it's going DOWN. We'll know the bottom when there are weeks between posts on this topic.

[Russ]

Armstrong's view is that inflation is not what will drive gold up towards 5000, it will be the loss of confidence in government. Despite your mocking the man, he predicted the world's current debt crisis back in the 1980's when he tried to warn the Reagan administration of the dangers of the debt getting out of control in the future. I doubt you made a prediction like that back then, or am I missing some info?

[tria]

FWIW UBS which has been correct in their bearish view so far this year says that Gold 1150 and Silver 17 are a good buy for at least the next 2 years after they bottom in the next few months. -tria

[SemiBizz]

Armstrong's view is that inflation is not what will drive gold up towards 5000, it will be the loss of confidence in government. Despite your mocking the man, he predicted the world's current debt crisis back in the 1980's when he tried to warn the Reagan administration of the dangers of the debt getting out of control in the future. I doubt you made a prediction like that back then, or am I missing some info?

We're not looking at a high here, we are looking at the low, despite your denial attempts, that low is a long way off in price, and if history is any guide, gold is twice the price or MORE today than it will be at that bottom. Even then, it will be another TWENTY YEARS before there is another rally like this one.

Most people have short memories... after gold hit nearly $1000 it dropped down to $200s, and there was real inflation during that time. Now, despite all the attempts to create inflation by the bankers, we still are facing the deflation problem. As far as your hysterical arguments about governments collapsing, you should be aware by now that history tells you that government isn't about to have their currency replaced by gold, doing everything including outlawing ownership.

If you really believe that collapse of government argument, you are wasting your time here, and should be stocking up a survival shelter somewhere out in the sticks...

[SemiBizz]

BTW, what's your purpose in blowing all this smoke about $5000 gold years from now? To get people to hold through this disaster?

[Russ]

I am not selling anything, just enjoy the exchange of information for the purpose of making money in the markets just like everyone else here. I am looking at both sides, that is why I have posted where I think the low is going to be and where the high is going to be. If I am wrong about the low that is what stops are for.

I did not say that governments are going to replace their currencies with gold, in fact they are trying to do everything they can to stop that, France has put extreme controls on gold sales now for example and governments are tracking who buys gold from dealers.

Ask yourself why the US government has bought large amounts of hollow point bullets recently, they know there is trouble coming, if you think the 16 trillion dollar debt is sustainable you are dreaming. 70% of the debt is from compounding interest, the bankers and their politicians have destroyed the future especially for the young.

I live on a farm so I am not too worried about surviving, people in the cities will be the ones at risk.

What is your purpose on here?

BTW, what's your purpose in blowing all this smoke about $5000 gold years from now?

To get people to hold through this disaster?

[SemiBizz]

I provide unbiased technical information. I gave my people an expectation on 4/15 of a test of weekly support of gold @ 1225. No surprises here with today's 1223 on the contract...