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1987 Comparisons and Recent Action


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#1 voltaire

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 12:20 AM

I did do a post 6 or 7 hrs ago and got the message that it needed to be checked out by a moderator before posting. Never seen that before.

It hasn't been posted here.

I have more to add so will repeat earlier info plus new thoughts and trust it might be displayed.

Here goes.

I mentioned recently that this latest rally action was reminiscent of previous blow-offs, characterised by a straight up move with gaps unfilled.

I could have given many examples but used one from Australian market in 1989 as a classic example.

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I suggested this may be the fate of US indices.

Not so far but what happened to MFST ?

Almost an exact repeat after the last session.

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Does this guarantee that US indices follow? No, but there are often precursors.

What about timing ? Here are some thoughts re 1987.

I believe Armstrong cycles are best used dynamically (from major turns) but his static dates often are significant.

The left shoulder of Armstrong's H&S 8.6 year pattern was due Oct 20 1987 and though it had been climbing for years and expected to be a top it was in fact the CRASH low.

The left shoulder of Armstrong's H&S 8.6 year pattern is due Aug 8 2013. Could it too be a crash low.

So patterns are similar and timing is similar but what else?

Sep 1987 was a monthly TDSEQH (DeMark sell signal).

Jun 2013 was a monthly TDSEQH sell.

Oct 2 1987 was the rally high and a TDSEQH daily sell signal.

Jul 16/17 2013 are daily TDSEQH sell signals.

I did mention that for July, any SPX close above 1683 is high risk and poor odds.

Just food for thought.

#2 fluid

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Posted 23 July 2013 - 01:30 AM

Thanks voltaire, although to be fair you were posting crash comparisons earlier in the year and throughout last year, so one will be right I guess.