So your thesis then holds that bubbles pop?
But the timing, oh the timing...
its a tendency of the mind to want to have a scenario in mind, and hope the market conforms to that scenario. what i do know is escalating debt causes all kinds of problems. this is what brought me to gold. corrections are part of the process. @this point in time the gold market has been @or close to backwardation=shortage of supply. this will keep a floor under gold as long as that market situation exists. the sentiment in the market is quite bearish, which is what major corrections are supposed to accomplish. from a gann point of view the anniversary date for the 60yr cycle was 10/9/13. does this mean the market cannot make new lows, of course not. it means that we are in a window of bottoming, and the gold/commodity markets appear to be doing just that. bottoms and tops are process' . pick your spots wisely, its never a time to chase or buy when the market is up substantially. @1430s it drew people back into the gold market , right when this correction began. i read everyone, and it seems there are many opinions when the low will occur. i will throw mine out there. the june lows occurred w/sentiment @suicidal levels, the market was way oversold. this low occurred after several periods of capitulation in the market. was this enough! i believe it was. but, i have not bet the ranch . i buy when favs get taken to the cleaners. as happens in this market. everything that has happened over the last years , will happen again only in spades. when the arab world nationalized their oil holdings, and kicked the majors out, it was a wake up call. in a cash starved world these kind of events will happen again. armstrong is not always right on the markets. obviously he got himself into trouble. BUT i think his ideas on the future of the world, @times is very inciteful. of course the dean harry shultz foresaw all of this and wrote extensively about it in the 90s. there was a reason his letter was pricey. he was that good.
watching hollande in france, he is not popular , but is a socialist and is taking that country down a dead end street.
@this point things here are a slow train wreck. its going to take time, as the reserve currency we can print. and the 85 billion a month is just keeping the ship afloat , w/little cost push inflation . china has 8% inflation. Shinzo abe is trying and will eventually kick start japan. yellen is on deck. patience is needed . the sad part for me, is the shredding of the constitution. really wise inciteful men drew up that document and now others have continued the shredding process which began awhile back.
dharma
dharma:
I always read Doug Noland:
http://www.safehaven...terminal-phases (excerpts below)
The QE-enhanced 2013 version of “how crazy do things get?” is outshining even the 1999 speculative melee. The (post-LTCM bailout) year 1999 saw the small cap Russell 2000 Index jump from 422 to 505 (19.7%). This year, it has already run from 849 to 1,114 (up 31.3%). The S&P400 Midcap Index jumped from 392 to 445 in 1999 (13.5%). With more than two months to go, so far it’s 1,020 to 1,290 for the midcaps (up 26.5%).
My Macro Credit thesis holds – and there is ample fundamental support for – the view that we’re now five years into history’s greatest global Bubble. I have posited that China is deep into its “Terminal Phase” of Credit excess. With China’s 1.35 billion people and Trillions of unrestrained Credit expansion, I’ll argue China’s “Terminal Phase” is integral to the overall “Terminal Phase” of a most protracted and dangerous global Credit Bubble. In general, post-2008 global monetary inflation pushed EM to precarious “Terminal Phase” Bubble excess, leaving deep wounds of economic maladjustment and financial fragility.
The dollar was hit relatively hard this week. Newfound dollar weakness may prove an important market development – perhaps even a crucial inflection point. Many speculators were positioned bullish the dollar, expecting a safe haven bid in the midst of unfolding EM instability.
It’s been only about three weeks, but the fourth quarter has already shown itself worthy of the history books. If the leveraged speculating community can hold gains through year-end, the ranks of billionaires are sure to inflate further. No winners?
stubaby
