43 replies to this topic

[tradermama]

just a reminder that back in December I mentioned how it got a negative trend change....so today's action changed it to positive....typically these don't turn quickly but nothing is 100%. so far too that low in July had held...I would say we saw the low in the year in July and now the low for the fall.....just a reminder pnf is not the same as regular TA..has to do with supply/demand...but reliable for risk management..full moon tomorrow..plus/minus a day..looks like we got that too...and tomorrow is Merriman's turn date plus/minus 3 days. TM

[tradermama]

just a reminder that back in December I mentioned how it got a negative trend change....so today's action changed it to positive....typically these don't turn quickly but nothing is 100%. so far too that low in July had held...I would say we saw the low in the year in July and now the low for the fall.....just a reminder pnf is not the same as regular TA..has to do with supply/demand...but reliable for risk management..full moon tomorrow..plus/minus a day..looks like we got that too...and tomorrow is Merriman's turn date plus/minus 3 days.
TM

Meant to mention that gold did get a buy signal yesterday too..target 1480
at this time gold is leading miners according to pnf
TM

[opinionated]

Thanks for sharing

[Russ]

Thanks TM, I agree with Merriman that it should go up into that 1500 area, then a consolidation and push into the 1600 or more area by summer.

[tradermama]

Thanks TM, I agree with Merriman that it should go up into that 1500 area, then a consolidation and push into the 1600 or more area by summer.

Just for the record, Merriman didn't say that..Dorsey pnf chart showed a positive trend change and the buy breakout targeting 1450...and like I pointed out with gold..it took 10 months from a pnf negative trend change to a positive one...this is based on a 10pt box scale...for a 20 pt box gold needs to touch 1480 now..and again up and down action will bring that down..a 25 pt scale shows gold needs to touch 1600...30 pt needs 1650..and last but not least the longer term chart of 40 pt never got a negative trend..however only if gold was to touch 1200 it would

this give you an idea of how pnf works on the short/IT/and longer term...

all that said, at this time gold is in it's 5 week of negative weekly momentum...an average is about 8 weeks..so it's possible no real movement yet...

Merriman I like as a financial astrologer...I did do a monthly subscription..and I weighed the importance of it vs just using pnf combined with TA...he works cycles..I just can't wrap my head around cycles ..if anything it throws me off..so I prefer just keeping it simple...pnf for managing risk..and TA

So are you now thinking we have seen the low for gold?...seeing you said 1600 or more by summer?...I don't predict out..because it creates a mindset for me..and like I said I just try and follow the trend..and right now pnf wise the trend is up...this would change if we touched 1260..and again all this stuff changes as the action changes

I'm curious if you know what Armstrong now says about gold seeing he though under 1k..not that it matters for me..but I like to see how he changes his mind if he does at all...I don't rely on what others say as no one can predict manipulated markets imo...and I feel the gold market has been manipulated as well as many have noticed the disconnect with the $ and gold..and remember I posted that the $ is in a negative trend which I think that happened in Sept..maybe Aug...can't recall offhand

I think we could see gold go up with the markets too...and I do feel we are in a secular bull for the equity markets despite all the top calling...which I don't know why people like calling tops and not just allowing confirmation of trend show it...but that's just me...seems like a lot on FF think they are gonna get a metal if they call the top..LOL!

TM

[Russ]

TM:
Sorry I can't agree that markets including Gold cannot be predicted. My oscillator showed Gold would bottom in 1999 - six years before it happened!

Same chart is now showing Gold will have a huge low in 2032 which just happens to be Armstrong's pi cycle 51.6 year and 309.6 yr peak.

Last I read Armstrong was still talking 1000 or lower but he also mentioned the idea that Gold may put in a double bottom going into 2015.

Next summer is showing up as a big high for Silver so that will include Gold too, if you look at the oscillator I have shown on there the logic of how it works....

[senorBS]

TM:
Sorry I can't agree that markets including Gold cannot be predicted. My oscillator showed Gold would bottom in 1999 - six years before it happened!

Same chart is now showing Gold will have a huge low in 2032 which just happens to be Armstrong's pi cycle 51.6 year and 309.6 yr peak.

Last I read Armstrong was still talking 1000 or lower but he also mentioned the idea that Gold may put in a double bottom going into 2015.

Next summer is showing up as a big high for Silver so that will include Gold too, if you look at the oscillator I have shown on there the logic of how it works....

I like your scenario, if we do rally strongly we could as easily do an "X" wave and then do another decline below the June lows. In either case at this time I do like the case for a rally at least to 1450-1500 area - one step at a time

Senor

[Russ]

I like your scenario, if we do rally strongly we could as easily do an "X" wave and then do another decline below the June lows. In either case at this time I do like the case for a rally at least to 1450-1500 area - one step at a time

Senor

Could you put up a chart showing the count you are talking about? I don't know elliot wave very well but I see there are quite often 5 main waves on charts.

Something like this?



Russ

[dougie]

f we do rally strongly we could as easily do an "X" wave and then do another decline below the June lows.


Senor: you mean after the next move up, an X wave down to new lows before the real surge?

TM:
Sorry I can't agree that markets including Gold cannot be predicted. My oscillator showed Gold would bottom in 1999 - six years before it happened!

Same chart is now showing Gold will have a huge low in 2032 which just happens to be Armstrong's pi cycle 51.6 year and 309.6 yr peak.

Last I read Armstrong was still talking 1000 or lower but he also mentioned the idea that Gold may put in a double bottom going into 2015.

Next summer is showing up as a big high for Silver so that will include Gold too, if you look at the oscillator I have shown on there the logic of how it works....

I like your scenario, if we do rally strongly we could as easily do an "X" wave and then do another decline below the June lows. In either case at this time I do like the case for a rally at least to 1450-1500 area - one step at a time

Senor

[tradermama]

TM:
Sorry I can't agree that markets including Gold cannot be predicted. My oscillator showed Gold would bottom in 1999 - six years before it happened!

Same chart is now showing Gold will have a huge low in 2032 which just happens to be Armstrong's pi cycle 51.6 year and 309.6 yr peak.

Last I read Armstrong was still talking 1000 or lower but he also mentioned the idea that Gold may put in a double bottom going into 2015.

Next summer is showing up as a big high for Silver so that will include Gold too, if you look at the oscillator I have shown on there the logic of how it works....

Russ, Let me clarify my statement...can't be predicted 100%...I hope I'm around in 2032 to see if you are right..LOL!..I do know gurus do waffle as I have seen even Armstrong do that also. We all have to adjust if things don't go our way on our roadmap...but no one predicts 100% correctly and for that reason..I don't stick with mindsets. I knew this year gold and miners were going to have a tough time based on the pnf trend and right now only gold has a positive trend based on what I showed you on the default box. It just gives you the price objective...doesn't mean it gets there. And typically this doesn't turn quickly that's why I give it a high percentage of value..like 95%. Till that trend goes negative again, the trend is positive for now. ..that's all I'll say. No predictions from me...just managing risk and it has been spot on including last year when I was pointing out relative strength changes were giving a warning. But right now the change in trend imo is significant for now
TM