43 replies to this topic

[Russ]

Russ, Let me clarify my statement...can't be predicted 100%...I hope I'm around in 2032 to see if you are right..LOL!..I do know gurus do waffle as I have seen even Armstrong do that also. We all have to adjust if things don't go our way on our roadmap...but no one predicts 100% correctly and for that reason..I don't stick with mindsets. I knew this year gold and miners were going to have a tough time based on the pnf trend and right now only gold has a positive trend based on what I showed you on the default box. It just gives you the price objective...doesn't mean it gets there. And typically this doesn't turn quickly that's why I give it a high percentage of value..like 95%. Till that trend goes negative again, the trend is positive for now. ..that's all I'll say. No predictions from me...just managing risk and it has been spot on including last year when I was pointing out relative strength changes were giving a warning. But right now the change in trend imo is significant for now
TM

For now the rally into next summer looks 100 percent certain, the rally into 2016-17 is also very likely, the trend could be violated for 2032 low on the expected huge rally into the $5000 area by later this decade but probably not. I will be an old man by 2032 will be interesting to see what happens, a big low for 2032 implies a massive deflation probably, I know Armstrong has said he hopes to be dead by then since he thinks the west will have collapsed by then, kind of frightening to think about it.

[tradermama]

Russ, Let me clarify my statement...can't be predicted 100%...I hope I'm around in 2032 to see if you are right..LOL!..I do know gurus do waffle as I have seen even Armstrong do that also. We all have to adjust if things don't go our way on our roadmap...but no one predicts 100% correctly and for that reason..I don't stick with mindsets. I knew this year gold and miners were going to have a tough time based on the pnf trend and right now only gold has a positive trend based on what I showed you on the default box. It just gives you the price objective...doesn't mean it gets there. And typically this doesn't turn quickly that's why I give it a high percentage of value..like 95%. Till that trend goes negative again, the trend is positive for now. ..that's all I'll say. No predictions from me...just managing risk and it has been spot on including last year when I was pointing out relative strength changes were giving a warning. But right now the change in trend imo is significant for now
TM

For now the rally into next summer looks 100 percent certain, the rally into 2016-17 is also very likely, the trend could be violated for 2032 low on the expected huge rally into the $5000 area by later this decade but probably not. I will be an old man by 2032 will be interesting to see what happens, a big low for 2032 implies a massive deflation probably, I know Armstrong has said he hopes to be dead by then since he thinks the west will have collapsed by then, kind of frightening to think about it.

And I'm not saying you are wrong...as I said in this thread we are in a positive pnf trend...when that ends I don't know..that's where imo TA comes into play with probabilities and the RS (relative strength) sell signals..but if we touch 1650 then we should be off to the races much further up. I live in the present and prepare for the worst as best as I can, but I'm surely not going to worry about it. I believe we still have choices and it's a matter of getting our political leaders to make the right choices.
And I'm sorry but I am in the camp that nothing is 100% certain but taxes and death. I'm only here to share something I find works for managing risk. It's not a trading tool but those RS and trend changes will guide me over anything else.
Best to you
TM

[Russ]

And I'm sorry but I am in the camp that nothing is 100% certain but taxes and death. I'm only here to share something I find works for managing risk. It's not a trading tool but those RS and trend changes will guide me over anything else.
Best to you
TM

That's your point of view, doesn't mean its the correct one. The debt train wreck is quite certain, if you think the debt is going to just disappear and stop compounding then that is unrealistic. there is no plan to ever pay anything back as Armstrong has noted,, the psychopaths in power will let it crash and burn.

[tradermama]

And I'm sorry but I am in the camp that nothing is 100% certain but taxes and death. I'm only here to share something I find works for managing risk. It's not a trading tool but those RS and trend changes will guide me over anything else.
Best to you
TM

That's your point of view, doesn't mean its the correct one. The debt train wreck is quite certain, if you think the debt is going to just disappear and stop compounding then that is unrealistic. there is no plan to ever pay anything back as Armstrong has noted,, the psychopaths in power will let it crash and burn.

Yes Russ it is my point of view. ......just like you have yours.... and where in the world have I said I'm correct?...I haven't even forecast anything like you are

I'm not saying the [bleeeep] wont hit the fan. I'm saying we all have choices. You can go as extreme as you want. Don't read anything more into it what I'm saying because you apparently are missing my point. Where in the world did I say debt is going to disappear??... you apparently like to argue a point that I never said. You can stick with your philosophy in life and I will stick with mine. As I said I play defensive and manage risk in every area of my life. I've stated many times what I have done to prepare myself but at the same time, i'm not living for the what ifs. I'm living in the present and for me my life is good. I don't allow fear to rule my life. Enough is said from me.
TM

[senorBS]

I try to respect everyone's opinion, but when anyone starts saying things like "100%" about a forecast I stop reading and move on BSing away Senor

[Russ]

I believe we still have choices and it's a matter of getting our political leaders to make the right choices. TM

The above from you is what I think is unrealistic, Obama has his big government socialist agenda as does the whole west, these fools are not going to give up their power voluntarily, they will hunt down money and implode the economy this is the real purpose of the NSA., just as happened in ancient Rome hunting money.

Politicians by and large are a bunch of crooks that refuse to learn that government does not produce wealth and big government has been proven by communists to lead to economic implosion. Time is running out the debt is compounding and there is great danger rates will rise now as pension plans are forced to move into the private sector. Armstrong has written on his blog extensively about all this.

"History repeats because the passions of man never change" Machiavelli

Cheers!

btw... I think your methods of analysis are good, its always good to get confirmations from multiple methods.

Edited by Russ, 21 October 2013 - 12:32 PM.

[Russ]

I try to respect everyone's opinion, but when anyone starts saying things like "100%" about a forecast I stop reading and move on

BSing away

Senor

your choice, just as you ignored me last august all the way down. I am not always right but I recognize extremely powerful signals that are highly unlikely to be invalidated.

[tradermama]

I believe we still have choices and it's a matter of getting our political leaders to make the right choices. TM

The above from you is what I think is unrealistic, Obama has his big government socialist agenda as does the whole west, these fools are not going to give up their power voluntarily, they will hunt down money and implode the economy this is the real purpose of the NSA., just as happened in ancient Rome hunting money.

Politicians by and large are a bunch of crooks that refuse to learn that government does not produce wealth and big government has been proven by communists to lead to economic implosion. Time is running out the debt is compounding and there is great danger rates will rise now as pension plans are forced to move into the private sector. Armstrong has written on his blog extensively about all this.

"History repeats because the passions of man never change" Machiavelli

Cheers!

btw... I think your methods of analysis are good, its always good to get confirmations from multiple methods.

ok Russ...I will say one more thing but then this is going no where...I'm actually laughing just so you know because you really are blowing all what I'm saying out of the water here...If you wanted an intelligent conversation, I would have been happy to have one..but I don't like assumptions or accusations and that is what you are doing....ask me...do I think politicians are crooks?..I sure do..I'm an Independent here too..so if you are gonna blame Obama blame them all!....but remember rules on TT are no political conversations...so sorry we can't discuss that...Ask me if I'm concern about our debt rather than assuming I'm oblivious to it all...yes I'm extremely concern. Am I concern if the [bleeeep] hits the fan? Yea, I have a years worth of food...have a home where we are going to retire in a small town in the mountains and my neighbor and us are fully loaded but not cocked yet!

If you think we have no choice..then why are you not bunkered down right now and just wait for the world to end....yea, we have a huge problem here...but if you think it's totally hopeless then get your money out of the market and move somewhere where you think is better than here.

Life is about choices...and our politicians have been bad choices but honey, this has been going on for a long time ...and if Armstrong is correct with his long term cycles..nothing could have stopped it...but what could have stopped and still there is always a possibility is how severe it will be..that is the choice that I'm also talking about...

I do think Armstrong deserves credit on a lot of things he has forecasted in the past...but I also have seen where he moves things out too...so that is his choice, right?...take me literally when I say we have choices..good or bad

Now, getting to your response to Senor about you may not be always right?...well, he and I just proved the point..no one is 100% right..you maybe be correct in your forecast..and then I say congrats!..but let's see how it all goes...I don't typically read tradertalk that much anymore..but thought I'd just post something significant..that was my only intent here..not to get hung up on whether life is hopeless...but let's do this...I'll put it on my calendar to meet you here in 2032 or whatever year you say the end is here...and personally congratulate you. But if I don't show up, it wasn't my choice...LOL!

I appreciate your thoughts as well as others..but let's calm down here...no one is saying we don't have major issues...

Ok...see you in 2032 if I have a choice

TM
P.S...Mercury Retro happens today..miscommunications..arguments...so take this fwiw..lol!

[tradermama]

I believe we still have choices and it's a matter of getting our political leaders to make the right choices. TM

The above from you is what I think is unrealistic, Obama has his big government socialist agenda as does the whole west, these fools are not going to give up their power voluntarily, they will hunt down money and implode the economy this is the real purpose of the NSA., just as happened in ancient Rome hunting money.

Politicians by and large are a bunch of crooks that refuse to learn that government does not produce wealth and big government has been proven by communists to lead to economic implosion. Time is running out the debt is compounding and there is great danger rates will rise now as pension plans are forced to move into the private sector. Armstrong has written on his blog extensively about all this.

"History repeats because the passions of man never change" Machiavelli

Cheers!

btw... I think your methods of analysis are good, its always good to get confirmations from multiple methods.

ok Russ...I will say one more thing but then this is going no where...I'm actually laughing just so you know because you really are blowing all what I'm saying out of the water here...If you wanted an intelligent conversation, I would have been happy to have one..but I don't like assumptions or accusations and that is what you are doing....ask me...do I think politicians are crooks?..I sure do..I'm an Independent here too..so if you are gonna blame Obama blame them all!....but remember rules on TT are no political conversations...so sorry we can't discuss that...Ask me if I'm concern about our debt rather than assuming I'm oblivious to it all...yes I'm extremely concern. Am I concern if the [bleeeep] hits the fan? Yea, I have a years worth of food...have a home where we are going to retire in a small town in the mountains and my neighbor and us are fully loaded but not cocked yet!

If you think we have no choice..then why are you not bunkered down right now and just wait for the world to end....yea, we have a huge problem here...but if you think it's totally hopeless then get your money out of the market and move somewhere where you think is better than here.

Life is about choices...and our politicians have been bad choices but honey, this has been going on for a long time ...and if Armstrong is correct with his long term cycles..nothing could have stopped it...but what could have stopped and still there is always a possibility is how severe it will be..that is the choice that I'm also talking about...

I do think Armstrong deserves credit on a lot of things he has forecasted in the past...but I also have seen where he moves things out too...so that is his choice, right?...take me literally when I say we have choices..good or bad

Now, getting to your response to Senor about you may not be always right?...well, he and I just proved the point..no one is 100% right..you maybe be correct in your forecast..and then I say congrats!..but let's see how it all goes...I don't typically read tradertalk that much anymore..but thought I'd just post something significant..that was my only intent here..not to get hung up on whether life is hopeless...but let's do this...I'll put it on my calendar to meet you here in 2032 or whatever year you say the end is here...and personally congratulate you. But if I don't show up, it wasn't my choice...LOL!

I appreciate your thoughts as well as others..but let's calm down here...no one is saying we don't have major issues...

Ok...see you in 2032 if I have a choice

TM
P.S...Mercury Retro happens today..miscommunications..arguments...so take this fwiw..lol!

“You and I are essentially infinite choice-makers. In every moment of our existence, we are in that field of all possibilities where we have access to an infinity of choices.”
Deepak Chopra agrees with me..LOL!

[Russ]

“You and I are essentially infinite choice-makers. In every moment of our existence, we are in that field of all possibilities where we have access to an infinity of choices.”
Deepak Chopra agrees with me..LOL!

The ancient Mayans did not really believe in free will, they thought if you were born to be a doctor you would be a doctor, if you were born to be soldier you would be that etc.

Whether the Universe is deterministic or in-deterministic is unknown, the whole concept of free will implies accidental reactions to stimuli rather than the idea that if a particular human brain's functions are understood well enough then it would be completely predictable how that person would react to whatever stimuli they come into contact with. We may very well have access to infinite choices but it may be quite predictable how any given person will react to those choices. The whole topic is obviously very controversial from a physics point of view.

Regarding my 2032 Gold date, I actually just about fell off my chair when I first found that trend on the chart. A person has to believe in what they are doing, that there is logic behind why they plan to put their money into something. I stand by the 100% statement about a high next summer, that is a very powerful confirmed signal, I have seen strong signals like that before and they always produce the expected result. What has to be understood is that the level of fear as measured by the indicator shows gold and silver are turning around, when everyone has sold there is no one left to sell and the price goes up, the inverse is true on the buy side.

As for Traders-talk view on politics, I have always disagreed with that, you cannot understand markets without considering politics. You don't see Armstrong refusing to talk about markets and politics because it might offend someone, that is just a gutless position this forum takes and limits the level of understanding of what people are doing with their money. For example the fact the spx keeps going up because capital is seeking shelter from socialists determined to tax away capital.