25 replies to this topic

[crossd]

ur welcome...


this came from campbell's site co-written by Armstrong's new guy who is an insider on capital hill... http://moneytalks.ne...-bet-on-it.html

Russ..i see Armstrong's global economic model..which commodities(say gold,the dollar,crude oil,30 yr interest rates) go with the trend

of the model and which are inverse..??

donc

[crossd]

ur welcome...


this came from campbell's site co-written by Armstrong's new guy who is an insider on capital hill... http://moneytalks.ne...-bet-on-it.html

Russ..i see Armstrong's global economic model..which commodities(say gold,the dollar,crude oil,30 yr interest rates) go with the trend

of the model and which are inverse..??

donc

Russ..sorry for the repost..i did not see page 2!!!..still learning to navigate the site again..

This might be of interest here to readers..i generally follow commodities and the CRB Index(commodities)..a study was done years ago..probably 1980's
that said this: lead times for cycle bottoms..

first the dollar bottoms..11 months later gold..4 months after that CRB,corn,silver,copper bottoms..4 more months crude oil bottoms..and last 4 more months
30 yr TBonds Yields bottom..ie TBond prices top..

it's possible that the UD$ has just bottomed around 79..(Dec futures)


donc

[AChartist]

I have a low right now, can't say the exact week and price, I am looking to buy one piece of gold in a gap down open. I only do the physical, no paper metals. This is a 60 week cycle, if there is another low, it might be 33 weeks from now. This next low in 33 weeks should be the last of the dominant 471 week cycle troughing. But in the Armstrong school of thought, my alltime Dow quarterly logarithmic detrended ( adjusted for devaluation) is a massive reverse head and shoulder and could double. How does that help anyone, to get a one time double on savings to extent saving are only in stocks, against permanent aggregate compounding devaluation of all future income. Thats bs too, about stocks doubling.

[AChartist]

The problem with this sort of talk, it is not helping me in any way, the price on silver coins is way up over the previous low which I called here pretty well in June, and I cannot buy any physical silver cheap here in this terrible low. This is why I am not afraid to buy a gold piece here now, sure I hope for a gap down open to facilitate that. To the extent it takes resource away from stocks, it could cost me something in that way. I just want some of it in the mattress for now and here is a covenient price low. This is only my second purchase in gold piece besides a few british sovereigns a year before. I am just starting the accumulation process, and planning for the major purchases to be in 33+ weeks.

[AChartist]

The other point of view assuming Armstrong is exactly right. If paper cracks below 1000 in about a year from now, that doesn't mean the coins are less. If stocks double to 2016, try cash that it for what, $10k gold. You got to do the accumulation is lows. I am not saying this is the low, it is one low. I am trying to be patient and catch a low, what does it matter. Do you know how much waste and fraud they suck out of me every day, what does a $50 trading error on a gold piece amount to in the big picture. It would be the least of the abuse we take.

[Lemming]

If it gets so bad that the government is stealing our pensions.....well I hope these end of the world views are wrong.

Now, now. This is not the end of the world, just the end game for all governments run by sinful man.

It has occurred since the dawn of human government and will occur for every human government.

Inevitable as the business cycle, human government will always turn greedy, promote its own self-interest and self-preservation, stifle then rob its subjects to keep the ball rolling, then finally with one last "hurrah", implode and collapse under the weight of its own fat.

-Lemming

"It is the doom of men that they forget"
- Merlin in the movie Excalibur

"Wilt thou set thine eyes upon that which is not? For riches certainly make themselves wings, they fly away as an eagle toward heaven."
- Proverbs 23:5