)
+ China continues to reset, having overbuilt for the past decade at a totally unsustainable pace.
+ oil prices once again near highs, and gasoline hasn't been below $3.00 for 1245 straight days. taking significant chunk out of the majority of the populations below $50k per year household incomes. Oil (high price) was one key adverse catalyst the last time, and will be again.
+ Far more debt has been accumulated than we had the last time, both at the Federal government level, state, and all public levels, along with on private level as well. (record tax takes are masking the growing pain from the increases, which is temporary, and always near a record high right before the market tops, then tanks)
+ Bank reserves, now flush with newly printed out of thin air funny money, are highly inflationary, and a latent bomb waiting to explode.
+ Discounters and retailers like Wal-mart have peaked for this cycle, and pretty much treading on thin ice. Thousands of retail closures occuring past 6 months, with more recent announcements, such as Sears way over due closing of hundreds of stores. (the few scarce jobs at even low wages people have, now being eliminated)
+ With debt ceiling gone, and budgets of no concern to anyone in DC, and a lame duck Prez, rest assurred the ever continuously and unimpeded ballooning debt level, will soon be crushing in terms of interest payments, as soon as the bond bubble bursts. and yes its a massive bubble, and will become more so, by 2015.
+ gross distortions in the markets due to QE, and massively misallocated capital spending for the past decade, which was bad in 2008, but made even worse with more QE levered by HFT's, has literally sucked numerous coffers dry, leaving next to no margin for the vast majority of businesses still in existence. Margins that somehow are made to look good, are so fake, as to be laughable. Even the Feds know this gig is up.
Everyone knows all these signs and warnings are there, yet so many proceed to throw more money at this garbage (S&P stocks and Dow stocks), which is masking the heavy hits taken in the previously screaming over bloated media stocks, bio stocks, internet stocks, and just about every niche of tech sector stocks, one by one getting nailed with 25 to 50% drops.
BRIC's and other emerging markets are getting hammered now by the FEds taper, which isn't really a taper, but nonetheless capital is leaving those markets (as it should because they were hot money gambles too), and leaving even fewer markets globally for the limited US export business or China to keep growing at the past 2 decades unsustainable hot pace.
How do I really know its misallocated ??? because from direct experience and my career in energy markets and energy tech for 28 yrs, all the last stupid money plows into energy tech garbage right near the market tops. (think fuel cells, and every other fairy tail pipeline energy tech dream)
In the midst of thee 'sucker rally'
Started by
nimblebear
, May 23 2014 07:52 PM
No replies to this topic
#1
nimblebear
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 6,062 posts
Welcome to the Dark Side !
Posted 23 May 2014 - 07:52 PM
Before the collapse.
Its so freaking classic its unbelievable people are willing to (once again and for the 3rd time) throw money at this market, which they will surely lose.
Let me count the ways:
+ VIX in the midst of all time lows (mega complacency)
+ Insider selling has been massive and record setting this year
+ Economically US at stall speed (no growth, and NO YOU CANNOT blame the weather)
+ Food prices and other needed goods, have been rising well above the stated headline rates of inflation
+ rents are a killer
+ Under employment in numerous groups, particularly a key group called the 25 to 35 year olds (many of which living in ma and pa's basements, and far larger percentage than in the 2007, or 2000 collapse periods) . Can you say NO HOUSING MARKET ???? !!!!
+ ZIRP still slaughtering savers and capital formation - and zero 'recovery' to speak of in 5 years, while the markets plowed to absurd PE levels, and new highs (100 P/E for Rusell - are you kidding me ??? )
+ China continues to reset, having overbuilt for the past decade at a totally unsustainable pace.
+ oil prices once again near highs, and gasoline hasn't been below $3.00 for 1245 straight days. taking significant chunk out of the majority of the populations below $50k per year household incomes. Oil (high price) was one key adverse catalyst the last time, and will be again.
+ Far more debt has been accumulated than we had the last time, both at the Federal government level, state, and all public levels, along with on private level as well. (record tax takes are masking the growing pain from the increases, which is temporary, and always near a record high right before the market tops, then tanks)
+ Bank reserves, now flush with newly printed out of thin air funny money, are highly inflationary, and a latent bomb waiting to explode.
+ Discounters and retailers like Wal-mart have peaked for this cycle, and pretty much treading on thin ice. Thousands of retail closures occuring past 6 months, with more recent announcements, such as Sears way over due closing of hundreds of stores. (the few scarce jobs at even low wages people have, now being eliminated)
+ With debt ceiling gone, and budgets of no concern to anyone in DC, and a lame duck Prez, rest assurred the ever continuously and unimpeded ballooning debt level, will soon be crushing in terms of interest payments, as soon as the bond bubble bursts. and yes its a massive bubble, and will become more so, by 2015.
+ gross distortions in the markets due to QE, and massively misallocated capital spending for the past decade, which was bad in 2008, but made even worse with more QE levered by HFT's, has literally sucked numerous coffers dry, leaving next to no margin for the vast majority of businesses still in existence. Margins that somehow are made to look good, are so fake, as to be laughable. Even the Feds know this gig is up.
Everyone knows all these signs and warnings are there, yet so many proceed to throw more money at this garbage (S&P stocks and Dow stocks), which is masking the heavy hits taken in the previously screaming over bloated media stocks, bio stocks, internet stocks, and just about every niche of tech sector stocks, one by one getting nailed with 25 to 50% drops.
BRIC's and other emerging markets are getting hammered now by the FEds taper, which isn't really a taper, but nonetheless capital is leaving those markets (as it should because they were hot money gambles too), and leaving even fewer markets globally for the limited US export business or China to keep growing at the past 2 decades unsustainable hot pace.
How do I really know its misallocated ??? because from direct experience and my career in energy markets and energy tech for 28 yrs, all the last stupid money plows into energy tech garbage right near the market tops. (think fuel cells, and every other fairy tail pipeline energy tech dream)
)
+ China continues to reset, having overbuilt for the past decade at a totally unsustainable pace.
+ oil prices once again near highs, and gasoline hasn't been below $3.00 for 1245 straight days. taking significant chunk out of the majority of the populations below $50k per year household incomes. Oil (high price) was one key adverse catalyst the last time, and will be again.
+ Far more debt has been accumulated than we had the last time, both at the Federal government level, state, and all public levels, along with on private level as well. (record tax takes are masking the growing pain from the increases, which is temporary, and always near a record high right before the market tops, then tanks)
+ Bank reserves, now flush with newly printed out of thin air funny money, are highly inflationary, and a latent bomb waiting to explode.
+ Discounters and retailers like Wal-mart have peaked for this cycle, and pretty much treading on thin ice. Thousands of retail closures occuring past 6 months, with more recent announcements, such as Sears way over due closing of hundreds of stores. (the few scarce jobs at even low wages people have, now being eliminated)
+ With debt ceiling gone, and budgets of no concern to anyone in DC, and a lame duck Prez, rest assurred the ever continuously and unimpeded ballooning debt level, will soon be crushing in terms of interest payments, as soon as the bond bubble bursts. and yes its a massive bubble, and will become more so, by 2015.
+ gross distortions in the markets due to QE, and massively misallocated capital spending for the past decade, which was bad in 2008, but made even worse with more QE levered by HFT's, has literally sucked numerous coffers dry, leaving next to no margin for the vast majority of businesses still in existence. Margins that somehow are made to look good, are so fake, as to be laughable. Even the Feds know this gig is up.
Everyone knows all these signs and warnings are there, yet so many proceed to throw more money at this garbage (S&P stocks and Dow stocks), which is masking the heavy hits taken in the previously screaming over bloated media stocks, bio stocks, internet stocks, and just about every niche of tech sector stocks, one by one getting nailed with 25 to 50% drops.
BRIC's and other emerging markets are getting hammered now by the FEds taper, which isn't really a taper, but nonetheless capital is leaving those markets (as it should because they were hot money gambles too), and leaving even fewer markets globally for the limited US export business or China to keep growing at the past 2 decades unsustainable hot pace.
How do I really know its misallocated ??? because from direct experience and my career in energy markets and energy tech for 28 yrs, all the last stupid money plows into energy tech garbage right near the market tops. (think fuel cells, and every other fairy tail pipeline energy tech dream)
OTIS.
