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[CRUISENAL]

I look mostly at long term charts anymore. After like 62 months of strait up from a SPX 666 low to 1925, seems like the SPX might just run out of steam. But I am not Long or Short here. Too much risk at this point to be Long IMHO. Also too much risk to be early trying to Short. If I were Long I would be very cautious here. For me, it is all about the monthly chart and the price action at the 10 SMA. For me, the only time to Short is when we see a monthly closing price below the 10 SMA and that means the last day of the month at close. Since we are in June, that will be Monday June 30th, and is my day to watch. I doubt we get a close below the 10 SMA on 6/30. Maybe July or August. The market is not moving much. The monthly 10 SMA is sitting at 1834 and off the recent high of 1925.88, so we are talking if the SPX does not go higher, a move down of 90+ SPX points or a bit more to give me a safe Short signal. Do I get the Top? No, but by waiting gives better odds that this time is real. What could happen is a pullback soon taking the SPX below 1814 and maybe into the upper 1700's and then reverse closing the month out still above the 10 SMA as has happened in the past, followed by a rally to a lower high and then reverse down the next month to close just below the 10 SMA. That scenario sets up a major market turn like 2000 and 2007. Once this occurs the trend turns to down and there is no telling how low it might go, but a Short position at that spot would be quite profitable long term, like for more than a years time. Only time will tell. We could just go up and down for weeks to a few months before it would actually turn down and that is how Tops are formed. In the shorter term, until that time comes, any dip can be bought Long, but be watching for a turn on a rally. Again, this only pertains to longer term thinking, not short term or day trading.