71 replies to this topic

[dharma]

682,1181,now 1280 . anyone why 80 is significant? gold held its openning, although not tacking any other gains on dharma

[dougie]

as ai mentioned i am hedged long

seems everyone is looking up for August.
Anyone have recent sentiment ?

If so, the real surprise will be a sell off

Not really dougie,
The real surprise would be for the first half of August to be up and the second half to be down. This has become a possibility I think.
BTW are you trading long or short because I am a bit confused with your posts.

-tria

[dougie]

there is only o[ne poster who has been tight these past 2 weeks it seems and that is YOU

seems everyone is looking up for August.
Anyone have recent sentiment ?

If so, the real surprise will be a sell off

FWIW, the 21 dma of the p/c ratio for GLD is near the lowest in over 2 years.

http://www.schaeffer...aspx?ticker=GLD

[dougie]

Gold has some support here but if it gives down we go , and perhaps way down

[dharma]

metals moving in 5 s up and 3s down not sure if the correction is over or not, but it is close in either event. imo my view is not short term. its about winning the war, for me, not the battles. commodities in general had a poor showing last week. miners are @a break even. it takes about a decade from discovery to a mine dharma

[senorBS]

metals moving in 5 s up and 3s down
not sure if the correction is over or not, but it is close in either event. imo
my view is not short term.
its about winning the war, for me, not the battles.
commodities in general had a poor showing last week.
miners are @a break even. it takes about a decade from discovery to a mine
dharma

agree, we have been up overall in 5's and down in 3's medium term and for me that tells the story, I think we are close to registering another important secondary low as we enter a strong "seasonal" time frame, I think we could have our answer this week, as always we only deal in probabilities

BSing away

Senor

[dharma]

metals moving in 5 s up and 3s down
not sure if the correction is over or not, but it is close in either event. imo
my view is not short term.
its about winning the war, for me, not the battles.
commodities in general had a poor showing last week.
miners are @a break even. it takes about a decade from discovery to a mine
dharma

agree, we have been up overall in 5's and down in 3's medium term and for me that tells the story, I think we are close to registering another important secondary low as we enter a strong "seasonal" time frame, I think we could have our answer this week, as always we only deal in probabilities

BSing away

Senor

that is the thing is nt it -probabilities! its the best we can do. well the seasonals are turning favorable as you mention. the wheeler cycle has turned up. miners are mining @break even. so supply is constrained. it looks to me from a fundamental vantage that supply/demand is positive. then the technicals look better and better. w/the lows a year behind us. the market is making higher lows. we need to see higher highs. and then we are good to go. 3years of bear has built alot of skepticism in the market. of course the gold cheerleaders are unperturbed by the reality of the market

canada is closed today.
i like where the market over all sits then there is jim rogers. where is golds 50% correction.?????
dharma

[dougie]

what was that action onf friday in GDX: running the stops on shorts?

[senorBS]

HUI-XAU-GDX earlier today all took out previous correction lows (since July 9/10 highs) by modest to marginal amounts and have rallied decently so far, the declines currently look like "potentially" completed double zigzags from those rally highs. This is now one of those very, very key junctures where if the bullish case is correct we should soon rally strongly. Any "sustained" move significantly below today's lows and I am OUT OF LONGS, I really like the bullish risk/reward here but you also have to be disciplined and have an exit strategy - I have mine. As always DYODD Senor

Edited by senorBS, 04 August 2014 - 02:03 PM.

[dharma]

although the situation for the miners seems like a finished wave count , gold does not appear to have a finished wave, i am looking @gld . gdxj has not made new lows creating a bullish divergence. remember we are approaching the end of the biz cycle . this is a time when inflation picks up . biz activity picks up it lasts until almost in 16. the bonds bottomed in 81 creating the head of an inverse h&s pattern . the bullishness has continued for 30+ years. the bull is long in the tooth. when inflation picks up the pressure on bonds will cause an upward move in rates. then its a different ball game. time wise it could start anytime w/in the next year or so. this time the feds balance sheet is greatly expanded compared to 08. the biz cycle is a fixture in the american system. the next pres is going to take over a real mess dharma