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[PorkLoin]

I am still in a quandary here. The rally from the May low featured some monstrous swings to the bullish side in intermediate-term indicators, and the rally up looks impulsive to me, in Elliott Wave terms. Just counting those waves, the move could be the start of a larger move up, after doing an ABC down from the year's high, as in the DJIA -- bullish outcome. It could also be a "C" within a sideways/up correction after the first move down from the year's high -- bearish outcome. For a while I felt the bullishness of those indicators would "carry the day," and week, and month. They have in the past, almost always. Yet now the NASDAQ is looking mighty weak, and the Dow and S&P nearly have five waves down from the recent high. Frankly, I thought we were in an on-balance bullish position, and that we'd get a sideways or clearly corrective decline after the move up from the May low. Had we got that, I would have considered it good confirmation of the bullish case, and exited all shorts, and got long short and intermediate term. Now I am not sure at all. Still very short on the long term basis, and not long on any time frame. If we get five waves down from the June high, and a corrective bounce higher or a sideways move, then I'd give the bearish case greater weight. Breaking the May lows would be bearish, too, regardless of most wave counts, and the NAZ isn't far from it. If we are still bearish from this year's highs, it will have fooled a ton of people, myself included, and the market likes to do that. Meanwhile, the wisdom of getting strong confirmation that the market is doing what you think it's doing is pointed up here. Doug