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Price & Time Guesses


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#1 Kimston

Kimston

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Posted 16 December 2014 - 09:35 PM

Dollar - If it hasn't topped already, the dollar should put in a multi-week to multi-month top most likely in the 12/31/14 to 1/6/15 time frame. Not sure, but I think uptrend may continue higher after intermediate correction.

Crude - Target for crude oil is 50 for a likely bounce. However if it breaks below 48 then 35 is a major target. Not sure on near-term timing but I have what appears to be important change-in-trend timing for crude around the week of 2/26/15. I have no idea regarding polarity in Feb until we get closer to that timing.

Silver - For well over a year now I have had a high-probability target for silver in the 13.16 area. I plan to start buying on break of 13.20 (stop 12.48) for expected multi-month rally (presumably largest rally since the 2011 top). I was lucky enough to dump all my core longs in metals near the highs in 2011 and have remained bearish since. After this expected low and intermediate rally, I suspect the metals will likely continue the bear market into late 2016 to early 2017.

Stocks - Here's a good roundup regarding stock market sentiment.
I think stocks have most likely topped, as projections in multiple indicies have been hit over the last couple weeks. Ideally, the expanding wedge pattern on the DJIA projects a swift decline to 14,720 to 14,500 area. Ideal timing for a low in this range is 1/5/15. If we sell into that timing I will be closing shorts and reversing for awhile. If we happen to rally into the 1/5 area, I will probably hold short. Polarity is difficult to correctly guess in advance on timing projections.

As usual, DYODD as all of the above could be way off. Happy Holidays.....

Kimston