76 replies to this topic

[Russ]

march 9 is the apple announcement
jobs report day = a day to smack gold
we are oversold but i see us getting into the
1160s
dharma

Do you still think the lows are going to hold and that we don't go down to test the 1980 high?

Russ

i dont know! there is support @the lows 1080,1033 etc so to test the 80 highs. that is a tough call
dharma

As you know that is Armstrong's view, that a test of the 1980 high of around 850 is likely. If you draw a line off the tops of 2008-2009 that line projects to around 850 this summer and that line is also parallel to the two lines off the tops and bottoms of the past few years as can be seen on the chart below, the whole key is the strength of the US dollar, Mr. A has also cautioned that is the German Dax stalls out on the pi cycle date this coming Oct but the NYSE keeps going up into 2017 then that is a warning that WAR could break out in Europe.

Edited by Russ, 06 March 2015 - 02:21 PM.

[dharma]

there were 3 operations in the market , that i saw and counted on friday. all designed to run stops. if 1150ish is broken , then there are no bullish counts that i see left. if that is the case then it is down into june. this saturday is the pi day and bradley turn. i want to see the cost of the new apple 18k gold watch, it is supposed to have @least an ounce of gold in it. down the road if it sells well, it could be a factor in the gold market dharma

[johngeorge]

Gold PNF chart In the event gold breaks under 1150 I would not be surprised to see it go to 1130 or 1080. IMO dollar strength is too great.

[dharma]

i see several things @play here the market is below the 1200 support in elliott terms this could be a C wave for the entire correction since the 1924 11 highs the 21 -22 month cycle , i have brought this out while back . finishes or completes in march/april seasonally the market tends to bottom @the beginning of april. then there is marty saying the market bottoms this summer i have 1080 as a powerful # and area of support. fridays break put me on the defensive. now i wait the dollar much like in the 27 is very strong. money is pouring in. the euro looks lower, maybe even alot lower its the perfect storm for the buck. although gold in euros is +10% for the year. dharma

Edited by dharma, 09 March 2015 - 09:45 PM.

[dharma]

in 1927 hitler was on the rise in europe, money fled to the usa . the dollar was strong and stocks began their end parabolic move. interest rates were raised here to try and stem the influx of money. it finally happened in 29. it seems to me there is a really good chance the broad market is rolling over here. i have yet to see a situation where the broad market rolls over and gold goes up. i dont think this is the major top for the broads, but it could be. remaining open minded. the indian wedding season begins this month. and lasts until june. on the seasonal chart that is expressed by the april and june lows. w/a rally in between. one of ubs analysts had this to say '"The next four months will be a battle between [US interest rate rises] in the West and physical demand in the East. "In the short term, you'd pick the interest rates on that." However, in the longer term Mr Battershill predicted Asian demand would put a solid floor under the gold price.' - UBS analyst Jo Battershill, quoted by The Sydney Morning Herald newspaper, March 9, 2015. now bank analysts have woken up to the fact that the east demand is a major factor for gold. chindians have gotten the fuzzy end of the stick for generations. when they have money they buy gold. later this month mercury enters saggitarius. which a large % of the time gold rallies when that situation arises. its a short term thing. fpr me, i am waiting to see the end of the 21/22 month cycle its presence on the gold chart is unmistakable. dharma Gold sentiment was little changed... HGNSI fell 12.5 points on Friday to -12.5% / MarketVane’s bullish consensus rose two points to 32% today, while the DSI rose a point to 13%. in spite of the #s the depression in the bugs is quite apparent. the market has this heavy feel to it

Edited by dharma, 10 March 2015 - 09:36 AM.

[dharma]

looks like @these gold prices anv had trouble. trading halted
http://finance.yahoo...-104404281.html
dharma

[dharma]

the chinese water torture=slow steady erosion of price. the greenback is dominant. it seems to gain on the collapsing euro daily. the 16-17 the fed meets, raising rates will make the dollar even more desirable. looks like we are setting up for a bounce HGNSI fell 12.5 points yesterday to -25% MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus fell a point to 31% today, and the DSI fell 3 points to 10%. -25% on hgnsi is starting to approach the sentiment @the lows dharma

[johngeorge]

This traditional PNF chart clearly shows critical support @ 1130. Once broken it projects gold to 1070.

[dharma]

indeed, w/1080 =3x 360 i see the market is @ an extreme sentiment wise. there is a really heavy feel to the market. and yet it seems they are pushing on a string. there are hourly divergences on the gld, gdx, and gdxj. i am waiting to see if this can become daily divergences. or if gold makes a new low and the miners do not follow. i want to see a broader participation on the ensuing rally -should that be the route we follow. this rally could set up for a june low, which will set up a strong fall rally . on the 20th the new london gold fix takes place w/chinese bankers as part of the more open process. eventually price discovery will take place in shanghai and dubai. comes and london are dinosaurs. shanghai will also be the lead in volume, of course this will not be immediate. the fed chats next week. fisher as he departed/retired called for immediate rate hikes. w/a large top formation in the broad market, doesnt seem like hiking rates will be now, but who knows. dharma almost 4 years ago when marty said gold would correct, no one listened to him(me included- i was slower on the draw) he had few who read his missives. today he has a broad based following.and everyone and his brother are calling for sub k gold . maybe it does?! but maybe it doesnt!!!!

[johngeorge]

Dollar Index crossed the 100 mark and commodities all red. Broads down as well. This Friday the 13th evidently not good for US market...............