9 replies to this topic

[mss]

POG is holding up well, the stocks are not and indication is more decline in the stocks. The two things that still bother me is -- lots of bears, and POG is above several supports. The question of the day, which one will give???

[pigeon]

When the market goes down it's index funds also go down. As ETFs are sold all stocks feel some pressure. I think the weakness of the gold stocks reflects the broad market pressure on all stocks. The fact that the POG is holding up indicates strength to me. If the gold stocks were weak in an up market I would take that as predictive of a lower POG to come. But gold stocks weak in a weak market doesn't mean as much.

[The_Gold_Miner]

Here is how my last basket of stocks is would be doing: Symbol Gain/Loss NTO 301.70 GSS -87.60 RANGY -2,258.75 IAG 1,688.20 NXG 479.50 AGT -444.59 CBJ 2,285.20 WHT -374.00 KGC 122.50 AUY 740.79 Total 2,452.94 Just about even, but the bottom has been dropping out over the last couple of days. By the time I get the sell signal this basket may break even. I think that the POG is only a small piece of the pie when trading gold stocks and I would not get it any more weight than I do any of the other indicators I use.

[The_Gold_Miner]

Forgive the grammar.. heheheh

[SilentOne]

Hi Guys,

I tried to trade the sector long last week and about the only thing that had any gas was NEM. I don't like the look of the miners while gold deals with the $409-410 level (62% retrace of '04 decline).

Good ratios to follow are these from Dr. AU's site. Dr. AU's gold charts

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$HUI:$GOLD,uu[r,a]dhlayyay[d20001001,20041231][pc50!c200!f][vc60][ilb14][J30193256,Y].gif

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$HUI:$XAU,uu[r,a]dhlaynay[d20001001,20041231][pc50!c200!f][iua12,26,9!lb14][J33625426,Y].gif

Near as I can tell, this next pullback in the sector will tell all. That is the difference being whether we will get a monster rally later this year, or whether the bull is over for the time being. Gold may battle with resistance for a while here, but it is the share price action that counts.

I think TOM mention a little while ago to watch the $CDN vs. gold. Curious that the $CDN/USD bottomed mid-June and then rallied until now. It looks to be forming a top soon which seems to coincide with gold topping out at its best levels in July.

Off to Canada next week for a visit with family. I don't expect to be doing much until I get back.

cheers,

john

[Slothrop]

XAU closes with a dragonfly doji, a reversal pattern -- I am struck by how little this index fell off with the POG selling down to 400.

[swanstkdh]

Would you elaborate? Everyone thinks this will bottom at 75? Maybe 81?

[TomD]

john very nice long term chart of the HUI/gold ratio....very interesting...probably THE key chart to watch going forward silentone the fact that NEM is outperforming the HUI is usually a negative...everyone is trading NEM because itis one of the few golds that has real liquidity to it and right now I am very much of the mind that liquidity is a problem for all markets the dollar is at a key juncture as well...if it going to put in new upleg then this as good a launch point as one could expect neck line support with weekly stochastics bottomed out and price action still within the realm of "correction" still on the sidelines myself...watching...but it that HUI/Gold ratio resolves to the upside...then I may find myself growing horns....but until then

[TomD]

silentone was trying to duplicate your chart.....yours is linear isn't it? when you use a log scale the result is different..particuarly the main trendline

[SilentOne]

Hi Tom, I just noticed that today. I would be using log charts for something like that, yet these are linear. The log charts already show broken trendlines. Those charts belong to Dr. Au. He has some very nice charts yet I am surprised that he has some linear ones there. Anyhooo, the bottom of the XAU gap at 86.5 gave way and the path of least resistance is down for now. cheers, john