28 replies to this topic

[dharma]

agree w/you amigo. nothing definitive yet but it sure looks promising. this week could have been a bear trap, break the lows of 1130 get everyone growling @1070 only to reverse . need to impulse here. above 1130 close goes along ways
i saw the fed balance sheet today . back in the stratosphere. for years the price of gold mirrored the balance sheet, since 11 that glove on a hand diverged. gold will ! some point have alot of catching up to do
from the 1924 highs . this C wave seems to be a diagonal triangle, that could have just ended . too early to say definitively!
patience
dharma
this guys piece that i posted the other day is spot on http://www.graceland...015jul21mk1.png

my preferred count for a long while is that this is a large ending wave 5 of C diagonal basis daily and weekly charts from the AUG 2013 high at 1433, and this last sharp drop should be ending an C wave of the last ABC, if correct we could fly out of here, again "if" correct

Senor

that is precisely the count that i am using
today venus goes retrograde
tomorrow uranus goes retrograde-
the trends that were , will reverse
i will think that i am wrong on this view if 1080 is revisited
the cot looks like the commercials added substantial longs while the large specs added shorts
next weeks cot could show the commercials net long
the psychology continues to be favorable for a turn-=short the rallies
we will know in good time
both hadik, who has called this market perfectly and now merriman have called this turn
lets see if it continues.
dharma

[senorBS]

agree w/you amigo. nothing definitive yet but it sure looks promising. this week could have been a bear trap, break the lows of 1130 get everyone growling @1070 only to reverse . need to impulse here. above 1130 close goes along ways
i saw the fed balance sheet today . back in the stratosphere. for years the price of gold mirrored the balance sheet, since 11 that glove on a hand diverged. gold will ! some point have alot of catching up to do
from the 1924 highs . this C wave seems to be a diagonal triangle, that could have just ended . too early to say definitively!
patience
dharma
this guys piece that i posted the other day is spot on http://www.graceland...015jul21mk1.png

my preferred count for a long while is that this is a large ending wave 5 of C diagonal basis daily and weekly charts from the AUG 2013 high at 1433, and this last sharp drop should be ending an C wave of the last ABC, if correct we could fly out of here, again "if" correct

Senor

that is precisely the count that i am using
today venus goes retrograde
tomorrow uranus goes retrograde-
the trends that were , will reverse
i will think that i am wrong on this view if 1080 is revisited
the cot looks like the commercials added substantial longs while the large specs added shorts
next weeks cot could show the commercials net long
the psychology continues to be favorable for a turn-=short the rallies
we will know in good time
both hadik, who has called this market perfectly and now merriman have called this turn
lets see if it continues.
dharma

Dharma, within that large diagonal count there is one key question, and that is whether this last C wave down from 1232 in mid May needs one more 4/5 subdivision basis weekly charts for completion - I am currently 50/50 that it does. A 38% wave 4 retracement would take gold to 1125. There is a chance wave "B" of the final ABC was a contracting tri and the downside pattern is complete but frankly I have low confidence in that count. I like the chance for a key low but unless we get above 1150 I have to be aware one more leg down "might" be needed, assuming we get a pop to that 1125 area

Senor

[dharma]

agree w/you amigo. nothing definitive yet but it sure looks promising. this week could have been a bear trap, break the lows of 1130 get everyone growling @1070 only to reverse . need to impulse here. above 1130 close goes along ways
i saw the fed balance sheet today . back in the stratosphere. for years the price of gold mirrored the balance sheet, since 11 that glove on a hand diverged. gold will ! some point have alot of catching up to do
from the 1924 highs . this C wave seems to be a diagonal triangle, that could have just ended . too early to say definitively!
patience
dharma
this guys piece that i posted the other day is spot on http://www.graceland...015jul21mk1.png

my preferred count for a long while is that this is a large ending wave 5 of C diagonal basis daily and weekly charts from the AUG 2013 high at 1433, and this last sharp drop should be ending an C wave of the last ABC, if correct we could fly out of here, again "if" correct

Senor

that is precisely the count that i am using




today venus goes retrograde
tomorrow uranus goes retrograde-
the trends that were , will reverse
i will think that i am wrong on this view if 1080 is revisited
the cot looks like the commercials added substantial longs while the large specs added shorts
next weeks cot could show the commercials net long
the psychology continues to be favorable for a turn-=short the rallies
we will know in good time
both hadik, who has called this market perfectly and now merriman have called this turn
lets see if it continues.
dharma

Dharma, within that large diagonal count there is one key question, and that is whether this last C wave down from 1232 in mid May needs one more 4/5 subdivision basis weekly charts for completion - I am currently 50/50 that it does. A 38% wave 4 retracement would take gold to 1125. There is a chance wave "B" of the final ABC was a contracting tri and the downside pattern is complete but frankly I have low confidence in that count. I like the chance for a key low but unless we get above 1150 I have to be aware one more leg down "might" be needed, assuming we get a pop to that 1125 area

Senor

i am aware that there are other possibilities. its why i need more time for the market to unfold
there are factors in place. so mr market show us
dharma

[senorBS]

agree w/you amigo. nothing definitive yet but it sure looks promising. this week could have been a bear trap, break the lows of 1130 get everyone growling @1070 only to reverse . need to impulse here. above 1130 close goes along ways
i saw the fed balance sheet today . back in the stratosphere. for years the price of gold mirrored the balance sheet, since 11 that glove on a hand diverged. gold will ! some point have alot of catching up to do
from the 1924 highs . this C wave seems to be a diagonal triangle, that could have just ended . too early to say definitively!
patience
dharma
this guys piece that i posted the other day is spot on http://www.graceland...015jul21mk1.png

my preferred count for a long while is that this is a large ending wave 5 of C diagonal basis daily and weekly charts from the AUG 2013 high at 1433, and this last sharp drop should be ending an C wave of the last ABC, if correct we could fly out of here, again "if" correct

Senor

that is precisely the count that i am using




today venus goes retrograde
tomorrow uranus goes retrograde-
the trends that were , will reverse
i will think that i am wrong on this view if 1080 is revisited
the cot looks like the commercials added substantial longs while the large specs added shorts
next weeks cot could show the commercials net long
the psychology continues to be favorable for a turn-=short the rallies
we will know in good time
both hadik, who has called this market perfectly and now merriman have called this turn
lets see if it continues.
dharma

Dharma, within that large diagonal count there is one key question, and that is whether this last C wave down from 1232 in mid May needs one more 4/5 subdivision basis weekly charts for completion - I am currently 50/50 that it does. A 38% wave 4 retracement would take gold to 1125. There is a chance wave "B" of the final ABC was a contracting tri and the downside pattern is complete but frankly I have low confidence in that count. I like the chance for a key low but unless we get above 1150 I have to be aware one more leg down "might" be needed, assuming we get a pop to that 1125 area

Senor

i am aware that there are other possibilities. its why i need more time for the market to unfold
there are factors in place. so mr market show us
dharma

fully agree amigo and with virtually no one thinking it might have been a final low last week I always look for surprises and overall I like the "look" of the large ending diagonal triangle and the "possibility" it just might be done - as I sad we have some key levels to watch for possible confirmation. And I do like Eric Hadiks (thx for that!) cycle stuff and how well last weeks capitulation fits with his work, "especially" if we do rally hard from here

BSing away

Senor

[tria]

I do like this $hui count and FWIW,

http://static.safeha...ugh/38394_a.png

-tria

[dharma]

senor and senor tria seems to me that the pieces of the puzzle are in place, even the bulls are looking for another decline(market analysts), the sentiment is @ or very near levels that have produced previous bottoms. , the sector is oversold to monthly charts. doesnt mean we cant go lower. however the situation looks promising. dharma

[senorBS]

senor and senor tria seems to me that the pieces of the puzzle are in place, even the bulls are looking for another decline(market analysts), the sentiment is @ or very near levels that have produced previous bottoms. , the sector is oversold to monthly charts. doesnt mean we cant go lower. however the situation looks promising.
dharma

agree, all the ingredients that we've seen at previous MT lows over the past few years are again in place from oversold and diverging technicals/extreme sentiment/"possibly" ending wave patterns, and of course those lows were in a nasty bear market which is now about as aged as bear markets get in this sector. The past few weeks have seen utter capitulation in the miners like I have never seen, as I mentioned Friday if you move the decimal pt in the HUI one place to the right the price of the HUI fell below that of gold. The XAU 20 year plus low in Oct 2000 was at 41.61, on Friday it hit 45.74, in that 1999-2001 time frame gold bottomed near 250, Friday it bottomed at 1076. Even the COT data is suggesting a bottom is near. There are no guarantees but death and taxes, but the possibility of an important low in Gold/Silver/Miners IMO has increased quite a bit. we see

BSing away

Senor

[dougie]

whatever scenario will fool the most and leave the most on the sidelines

[johngeorge]

"whatever scenario will fool the most and leave the most on the sidelines"

So true dougie.
Gold showing good relative strength vs other commodities this am. Perhaps the long awaited bounce is underway

[senorBS]

gold is possibly in wave e of a fourth contracting triangle from 1076 decline low so one more thrust to a more tradable low could occur soon, this count is invalidated on a rally above 1104 Senor