27 replies to this topic

[tria]

Looking at a daily chart, it seems possible that Gold is forming a 10-week symmetrical triangle since early August. Of all the major classical chart patterns, the symmetrical triangle is the least reliable. A close above $1,160 will make me re-evaluate my assumption. Orders were placed to sell @ $1,147.90 and @ $1,149.70 If filled, I will be only 1/2 long in my Gold trading position. I will probably do the same with Silver if and when Gold reaches the above targets. -tria

Edited by tria, 04 October 2015 - 05:57 PM.

[fib_1618]

Of all the major classical chart patterns, the symmetrical triangle is the least reliable.

How and what are you basing this on, because as a chartist, it is THE most reliable of any or all geometric patterns.

Fib

[tria]

Of all the major classical chart patterns, the symmetrical triangle is the least reliable.

How and what are you basing this on, because as a chartist, it is THE most reliable of any or all geometric patterns.

Fib

On my personal experience Fib, nothing more. Perhaps I have seen one too many that failed to keep their promise so I keep some distance...

In conjuction with volume analysis however or other technical indicators to confirm, its reliability does increase exponentially.

-tria

Edited by tria, 05 October 2015 - 05:06 AM.

[fib_1618]

In conjunction with volume analysis however or other technical indicators to confirm, its reliability does increase exponentially.

As with any or all geometric patterns, the daily volume data is needed to not only confirm the structure, but this important insight to the supply and demand factors that control such structures is needed in order to separate it from either being a continuation or a reversal pattern (the only pattern, by the way, that can go either way).

In any event, symmetrical triangles are about 90% accurate in their forecast, but it's the volume component that allows us to know the likely direction of the break.

Fib

[tria]

My first sell Gold order was filled and accordigly as I said above that I would, I sold 1/4th of my Silver trading position @ $15.97. It was bough ton 9/4 @ 14.51 and unlike the Gold longs. Silver did not give me any headache during this period. -tria

[johngeorge]

Beautiful trading tria! Thanks for the updates.

[tria]

My second sell order to sell GCZ15 @ $1,149.70 OB was filled. A mkt sell order for SIZ15 was filled @ $16.07 I have a gut feeling the rest of the week may not be so pretty but gut feelings are forbidden in trading. Price and time rule as always. Now 1/2 long in futures trading position in Gold and Silver. -tria

[tria]

The GLD options situation as of now:

The October OPEX on 10/16 looks non-malignant.

The November one on 11/20 has a problem with the Nov calls, strike-110
It has an OI of 14K, a rather large number relative to other calls or puts strikes (just a few hundreds).

The December opex on 18/12 has a very big problem with the Dec calls, strike-110 as well.
It shows a huge OI of about 52K.

Bottom line is that I will be pleasantly surprised if Gold closes much above $1,148.00 on 18/12 unless 52,000 Dec-110 CALL contracts expire in the noney and that I have to see to believe....
Maximum pain is usually being inflicted most of the times but this time may be different....

But what do I know?
-tria

http://www.google.gr...:...ct=c&ictx=1

http://www.google.gr...3...ct=c&ictx=1

[Russ]

5 hour candle chart is looking like at least a temporary high http://www.investing...ommodities/gold , I am seeing the us dollar index going down into late Oct, then up into Jan btw...

Edited by Russ, 06 October 2015 - 01:44 PM.

[tria]

It all looks pure short covering to me as Palladium's price rises in tandem with a falling OI.

Show me any new Palladium buying since late August, where is it?

I just can't see any price rise above and about the $730 level.

http://www.barchart....p;txtDate=#jump

-tria

Edited by tria, 06 October 2015 - 09:41 PM.