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The sky ain't blue in the short term-imo


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#1 tria

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Posted 25 October 2015 - 05:09 PM

I don't like what I see and I posted a few observations that bother me last week, like the O.I situation.
I will add the Gold's negative acting OBV behaviour on my list.

http://stockcharts.c...id=p36367249667

Sell all long futures asap and to initiate a small GCZ15 short position, this is my plan.
This trade may last till very early November.

-tria

Edited by tria, 25 October 2015 - 05:15 PM.

In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
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#2 tria

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Posted 25 October 2015 - 09:14 PM

Sold the first 1/4th @ $1,165.00 basis spot. Now 1/2 long. -tria

In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky


#3 tria

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Posted 26 October 2015 - 03:57 AM

Sold 1/2 of my SIZ15 position @ $15.93 Sold another 1/4th GCZ15 @ 1,165.70 I may keep the remaining small long position since as of 9/24 I am short GCZ15-1170 strike-CALLS for a $27 premium credit, and I do not wish the calls to be completely naked but only partially. I'll see how the day progresses. -tria

In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky


#4 tria

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Posted 27 October 2015 - 08:45 AM

Rather frustrating trading so far this week, it should have fallen more by now. Instead, it drifts aimlessly and maybe this has to do with the futures opex today and the fed'w talk tommorow. I am comfortable with a small net short position but given the chance of an uptick tomorrow I will probably go a bit more short. My view and opinion only, I may get a surprise soon... -tria

In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky


#5 crossd

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Posted 27 October 2015 - 10:17 AM

Rather frustrating trading so far this week, it should have fallen more by now.
Instead, it drifts aimlessly and maybe this has to do with the futures opex today and the fed'w talk tommorow.

I am comfortable with a small net short position but given the chance of an uptick tomorrow I will probably go a bit more short.

My view and opinion only, I may get a surprise soon...

-tria



..i agree with you short term..the $ has reawakened and this could be trouble for the metals..
and if FOMC surprises and raises rates now..then a buy opp will come about..

donc

#6 tria

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Posted 28 October 2015 - 08:07 AM

Sold remaining Gold @ $1,175.00 1/2 long Silver only now and GDXJ long dated calls. -tria

In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky


#7 tria

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Posted 28 October 2015 - 09:10 AM

Finally if $1,189 basis spot is touched, the remaining SIZ15 futures will be sold at the market and call it a day for the rest of this month. -tria

Edited by tria, 28 October 2015 - 09:14 AM.

In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky


#8 SemiBizz

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Posted 28 October 2015 - 09:14 AM

Snippet from Wednesday's XAU ...

XAU pulled back on lighter volume on Tuesday as it fell under 54 to a low of
53.59 and closed at 54.57, almost a buck off the low after testing the support
on a lighter volume bullish spring. OK so we have the F'eds tomorrow, and
coming after this lighter volume pullback, we'll be looking for this to bounce
ahead of the mystery

.


Snippet from Wednesday's Gold...

Again another day of no real action, yes there was a slightly lower low and
lower high, but again on very light volume... Gold closed at 1166, just
basically going nowhere right now except sideways, building compression into the
F'ed "decision" tomorrow. Unless the F'ed surprises everyone and announces a
rate hike, we would expect at least a temporary bid under gold, and very strong
likelihood of a bounce at least going into the report.


Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

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#9 tria

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Posted 28 October 2015 - 09:26 AM

Snippet from Wednesday's XAU ...

XAU pulled back on lighter volume on Tuesday as it fell under 54 to a low of
53.59 and closed at 54.57, almost a buck off the low after testing the support
on a lighter volume bullish spring. OK so we have the F'eds tomorrow, and
coming after this lighter volume pullback, we'll be looking for this to bounce
ahead of the mystery

.


Snippet from Wednesday's Gold...

Again another day of no real action, yes there was a slightly lower low and
lower high, but again on very light volume... Gold closed at 1166, just
basically going nowhere right now except sideways, building compression into the
F'ed "decision" tomorrow. Unless the F'ed surprises everyone and announces a
rate hike, we would expect at least a temporary bid under gold, and very strong
likelihood of a bounce at least going into the report.



Very good Semi, Gold's refusal to fall sharply on Monday as to what my script had called for, meant that something was wrong with my short term bearish view. If it does not fall by week's end or by next week, then obviously I am out of tune in the short term.

-tria

Edited by tria, 28 October 2015 - 09:29 AM.

In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky


#10 SemiBizz

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Posted 28 October 2015 - 09:50 AM

FWIW, GDX wants to test 16.99 here.
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics