11/19/15
- Gold
- price is very speculative
- price has retraced 50% approximately, $1086 (0.500), $1920- Sep/2011 - $252- Aug/1999.
- short term support zone (1) 1077.5-1044.8, 0.786 @1051.8, see chart 1
- short term support zone (2) 1041.5-1032.8
- imho: swing trade wait for reversal confirmation. 0.236 out of recent high 1191.4 to Low
- long term chart looks not bullish, see chart
link
London Fix Prices AM/PM
link
11-19 1073.10 1082.60
11-18 1070.50 1067.75
11-17 1080.80 1079.20
Gold Futures H/L
link
11-19 1082.40 1077.40
11-18 1071.90 1064.00
11-17 1075.80 1065.10
chart 1
USD Gold correlation
Cyclists’ outlook
THE WEEKLY RE-LAY Eric S. Hadik, INSIIDE Track Trading
Beginning Nov. 11, 2015
an excerpt:
Gold and Silver Poised for Multi-month Low in Nov. 2015; As described repeatedly, a sustained advance in Gold and Silver is not expected until 2016.
link
Gold, Silver and Other Important Questions You Have!
Larry Edelson | Wednesday, November 18, 2015 at 7:30 am
an excerpt:
gold is following its cyclic destiny
chart: http://www.moneyandm...380/chart1l.jpg
full text: link
Analysts/commentaries
(1) Prepare for Gold Below $1,000 as Fed Pulls the Trigger on Rates
Rajneesh Yakima Jasmine Ng November 19, 2015
link
(2) Is US Monetary Policy Made in China?
link
(3) The Devaluation Of The Yuan And Gold
link
Fundamental
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet
link
What’s going to happen to the Fed’s balance-sheet?
FED U.S. Treasury securities Holdings
remaining Maturity / amount
over 1 year to 5 years $1.130233 trillion (as of Nov 11, 2015)
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Calls for More Accountability from Fed
Author: Brian Honea March 6, 2015
link
it is "not clear" when the Fed will explain this and other measures such as what indicators it will use to determine when it should unwind its balance sheet.
"The Fed should not only be able to answer these questions, it should be held accountable for its actions," Representative Richard Shelby said.
Background info:
m o n e t a r y p o l i c y
The Rise and (Eventual) Fall in the Fed's Balance Sheet
Lowell R. Ricketts , Christopher J. Waller - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
pdf link
The FOMC has stipulated that the expansion of the Fed balance sheet is a temporary policy stance and that holdings will return to normal as the recovery progresses
Monetary Policy and the Federal Reserve: Current Policy and Issues for Congress
Marc Labonte, Specialist in Macroeconomic Policy, June 18, 2015
pdf link
The “Exit Strategy”: Normalization of Monetary Policy After QE
The most straightforward way to return to normal monetary policy would be to remove those excess reserves by shrinking the balance sheet through asset sales. In its normalization statement, the Fed ruled out MBS sales and indicated that it does not intend to sell Treasury securities in the near term. Instead, it eventually plans gradual reductions in the balance sheet by ceasing to roll over securities as they mature. However, the Fed plans to continue rolling over maturing securities until after it has raised the federal funds rate, which is expected sometime in 2015. The Fed intends to ultimately reduce the balance sheet until it holds “no more securities than necessary to implement monetary policy efficiently,” which Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated might not occur until the end of the decade.
Still no words on Balance Sheet Exit policy
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
October 27-28, 2015
link
The System Open Market Account manager and the secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability."
- The continuation & new posts will be posted in a new thread title: Gold - GDX NUGT DUST (2)
Edited by barbu, 19 November 2015 - 10:37 PM.
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