27 replies to this topic

[tria]

Gold priced in USD chart, still looks a bit problematic to me.
It is not that Gold is overall weak, on the contrary it is not.

http://stockcharts.c...id=p99620065139

http://stockcharts.c...id=p30135005339

http://stockcharts.c...id=p35323844726

It is the Eurozone's economic decay and Brussels bureaucracy thay make the Euro look fundamentally weak.
Still the potential for a small rebound exists.

http://stockcharts.c...id=p11602355549

I will just close 1/2 of my Euro short hedge position against the long PMs today.
Untill things clear up a bit more I'll do nothing else.

-tria

[tria]

Three months have passed since these two were updated,
We are near the end of the dirty tricks campaign probably.

Edited by tria, 22 November 2015 - 07:44 PM.

[tria]

A small probability exists for the Fed to announce tomorrow a rate rise ahead. Before the stk mkt falls again, before the economic news out of Europe get worst, before the ISIS rats hit again somewhere, before the US becomes more active in Syria. If they don't raise tomorrow or in December their remaining credibility is gone. The Euro acts like something is up and hence I am standing pat tonight and see how the Euro trades in London tomorrow. -tria

[tria]

"Over the past few days, the London 1-week GOFO rate (LIBOR minus the gold lease rate) has suddenly surged to - 0.30% and the 1-month rate to -0.23% both from positive values signalling physical market stress. We will know whether this is meaningful with time, however the broad story has already been told - the gold is, in broad terms, gone from London and New York."

http://www.safehaven...ets-in-collapse

I noticed the same in the nearby futures premiums, ie. they are in small backwardation again.

GLD & GDX options O.I. expiring 11/27 suggest any Gold drop of more than $10.00 should be short lived till then.

The Anti-Gold Bugs have started name dropping.
The Gold Bugs are now being called "jihadists", "out of their mind", "obsessive", "insane", "twisters", "lunatics".
Next time we may hear that Interpol international arrest warrants have been issued for them.
It is dangerous to be a Gold-Bug nowdays...intersting juncture.

http://www.armstrong.../archives/39351

-tria

[tria]

This chart will make up my mind whether there will be any meaningful rally during what is left of 2015.
The pattern in November could be a triangle (one needs some inagination) with bullish implications or a flag with bearish implications. I think its the former.
We'll see, as they say.

http://stockcharts.c...id=p79671225914

-tria

[tria]

For the moment my decision to keep the short Euro hedge seems correct.
I would have been wildly bullish for Gold if not for the Euro's technical and fundamental weakness.

Perhaps the only way for the POG in USD to break loose of the weak Euro chain is for Turkey to do again a stupid mistake and to shoot down another Russian plane. A chain reaction would then probably start.
Why Turkey did not scrumble the Russian warplane, like Greece does when Turkey's planes enter our airspace, I do not know. After all both Russia and Turkey are supposedly fighting a commom enemy/nemesis, ISIS.

M. Armstrong has an explanation, but its only a hypothesis/theory.
I have another explanation. Russia is helping the Kurds in Syria as well, but the Kurds are Turkey's enemy.
Most of the illegal ISIS crude oil sales go to or through Turkey BTW.
A more complex, conflicting interests at play, geopolitical situation than the one in Syria, one can not find.

http://www.armstrong.../archives/39792

http://sputniknews.c...-warplanes.html

http://www.ibtimes.c...-market-2198214

A very happy Thanksgiving Day to all US members.

-tria

[tria]

I like the way O.I. in Gold futures behaves recently. Bought some JNUG today - $30.23 and NUGT - $24.73 Small order size.

[tria]

The spread indicator says buy GDX and its long oriented X2 and X3 derivative ETFs.

http://stockcharts.c...p...34306&r=954

[johngeorge]

tria "A very happy smile.gif Thanksgiving Day to all US members" Perhaps you can celebrate with us.....I will tip one for you. I was buying this AM as I see a very good chance of PM stocks advancing from here. Smaller trading position in RING. Thanks for the thread and updates. Best to you.

[tria]

The O.I. in options for GLD and GDX expiring on Friday suggests the following: Gold will not drop below $1,065 next two days - high confidence - GDX will probably not rise above $14.00 untill after this Friday - medium confidence - Looks like an opportune time to go fishing for a turkey in Turkey, imo.

Edited by tria, 25 November 2015 - 01:46 PM.